ONDO Breaks Out of Ascending Channel – Analyst Sets $0.29 Target

·

ONDO is facing renewed selling pressure following a sharp 33% drop from its May highs, signaling a shift in market sentiment and raising concerns about the sustainability of its earlier bullish momentum. Once considered one of the standout altcoins in the real-world asset (RWA) sector, ONDO has struggled to maintain traction amid broader market uncertainty and weakening technical structure. While some investors still see long-term promise, the recent breakdown below key moving averages and the collapse of its ascending channel suggest that short-term bearish momentum is firmly in control.

The current price action reflects growing skepticism among traders, with volume declining and volatility increasing. This phase of consolidation could determine whether ONDO stabilizes for a potential rebound—or continues its descent into deeper support zones. With key technical levels under threat, the coming days may prove pivotal for the asset’s trajectory.

👉 Discover how market trends influence altcoin performance and what signals to watch next.

Technical Structure Weakens as Bullish Momentum Fades

For much of early 2025, ONDO maintained a strong uptrend supported by an ascending channel pattern—a classic indicator of sustained buying interest. However, recent price action shows a definitive breakdown below this long-standing structure, a development closely monitored by technical analysts.

Ali Martinez, a respected on-chain and technical analyst, has highlighted this bearish breakout, emphasizing that such patterns often precede extended downside moves. When an asset breaks below an ascending channel, it typically indicates that buyers are no longer able to push prices higher at previous rates, and sellers are beginning to dominate.

This structural shift increases the likelihood of further downside, with Martinez projecting a potential target near $0.29—a level that aligns with historical demand zones from late 2023. If reached, this would represent a significant correction from current levels and underscore the severity of the ongoing pullback.

Currently trading around $0.747**, ONDO remains below both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), which now act as dynamic resistance at **$0.93 and $1.00, respectively. These moving averages have historically served as support during uptrends, but their current role as resistance highlights the changed market dynamics.

A sustained close above $0.85 would be required to signal any meaningful recovery, particularly if accompanied by rising volume and bullish candlestick patterns. Until then, the balance of power remains firmly in favor of bears.

Key Support Levels Under Pressure

The breakdown below $0.80** marks a critical turning point for ONDO’s short-term outlook. This level had previously acted as strong support during earlier corrections, making its failure especially significant. With that barrier now broken, the path toward **$0.60–$0.50 appears increasingly probable.

This range corresponds to a consolidation zone seen in Q4 2023, where strong buying interest previously emerged. However, whether those levels will hold again depends heavily on broader market conditions and renewed investor confidence in the RWA narrative.

Further downside below $0.50 could open the door to more aggressive selling, especially if macroeconomic headwinds or regulatory concerns impact the broader crypto market. Conversely, a strong reversal from current levels—with decisive volume and momentum—could rekindle bullish hopes and attract contrarian buyers.

Still, until there’s clear evidence of demand returning, traders should remain cautious. The absence of strong accumulation signals and persistent low volatility suggest that many participants are waiting on the sidelines.

👉 Learn how to identify high-probability reversal zones using technical analysis tools.

Market Sentiment Divided Amid RWA Sector Uncertainty

Despite the negative price action, fundamental interest in ONDO remains anchored in its role within the real-world asset tokenization space—an emerging trend expected to gain momentum through 2025. The concept of digitizing traditional financial assets like bonds, real estate, and private credit using blockchain technology continues to attract institutional attention.

ONDO’s underlying protocol enables fractional ownership and increased liquidity for these assets, positioning it as a key player in this evolving ecosystem. However, progress on adoption and revenue generation has been gradual, leaving price performance largely dependent on speculative flows and overall crypto market sentiment.

As a result, investor opinions are split:

This divergence underscores the importance of risk management. Traders must weigh both technical indicators and macro developments when assessing ONDO’s future path.

What’s Next for ONDO? Scenarios Ahead

Looking ahead, several scenarios could unfold based on price action over the next few weeks:

  1. Continued Downtrend (Bear Case)
    If ONDO fails to reclaim $0.85 and breaks below $0.70, downside momentum could accelerate toward $0.60 or even $0.50. A close below $0.50 would increase the risk of a deeper correction toward Martinez’s $0.29 target.
  2. Range-Bound Consolidation (Neutral Case)
    The asset may stabilize between $0.65 and $0.85 for several weeks, allowing time for sentiment to reset and for new demand to emerge. This scenario would require low volatility and balanced trading activity.
  3. Bullish Recovery (Bull Case)
    A decisive breakout above $0.93 with strong volume could signal a resumption of the prior uptrend. Such a move would likely be fueled by positive sector news or broader market strength in altcoins.

Ultimately, the resolution of this phase will depend on whether institutional capital returns to RWA-related projects and whether ONDO can demonstrate tangible growth in on-chain activity or partnerships.

👉 Stay ahead with real-time data and advanced charting tools for smarter trading decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Why did ONDO break out of its ascending channel?
A: An ascending channel breakdown typically occurs when buying pressure weakens and sellers take control. For ONDO, this was triggered by failed attempts to retest $1.00 and declining volume, leading to a loss of bullish structure.

Q: What does the $0.29 price target mean for ONDO?
A: The $0.29 level represents a deep historical support zone from late 2023. While not guaranteed, it serves as a potential downside target if selling pressure persists and no strong demand emerges.

Q: Is ONDO still a good investment in 2025?
A: It depends on risk tolerance and time horizon. Long-term investors may find value in its RWA fundamentals, but short-term traders should await clearer technical confirmation before entering new positions.

Q: What indicators should I watch for a possible ONDO reversal?
A: Key signs include a close above $0.85, rising trading volume, bullish candlestick patterns (like hammer or engulfing), and positive divergence on momentum oscillators like RSI or MACD.

Q: How does ONDO compare to other RWA tokens?
A: ONDO is among the most recognized tokens in the RWA sector due to its early mover advantage and institutional partnerships. However, competition is increasing from newer platforms offering similar services.

Q: Can ONDO recover if the overall crypto market rallies?
A: Yes—altcoins like ONDO often follow broader market trends. A strong rally in Bitcoin or Ethereum could lift sentiment and drive capital back into high-potential projects like ONDO.

Core Keywords: