After enduring its longest weekly losing streak in history, Bitcoin has finally turned a corner. The world’s leading cryptocurrency broke a nine-week downward trend, closing the week at $29,900 — a $450 gain from the previous Sunday. Momentum carried into early June, with BTC/USD climbing to a multi-day high of $31,327 by June 6, offering long-awaited relief to bulls.
But despite this rebound, optimism remains cautious. Broader macroeconomic pressures, shifting market dynamics, and miner behavior suggest that Bitcoin is far from out of the woods. As the market recalibrates, five critical factors will shape BTC’s trajectory in the coming days.
Bitcoin’s Weekly Reversal: A Glimmer of Hope
After weeks of relentless selling pressure, Bitcoin finally posted a green week on the charts — a rare sight since March. The nine-week losing streak was the longest in BTC’s history, underscoring a period of intense bearish sentiment driven by macro headwinds and risk-off investor behavior.
On June 5, Bitcoin broke the cycle, closing above $29,900 and setting the stage for short-term recovery. By June 6, prices surged to $31,327 on Bitstamp, marking its strongest performance since June 1.
While this shift sparked celebration among supporters, analysts remain measured. Michaël van de Poppe, a well-known market commentator, pointed to an unresolved gap in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures market around $29,000.
“A drop to $29K is very reasonable, followed by a brief reversal toward $31.5K.”
This suggests that a pullback could still test key support levels before any sustained rally. Order book data reinforces this view — on Binance alone, over $60 million in sell-side liquidity sits around the $32,000 zone, creating a natural resistance barrier.
Il Capo of Crypto, another respected analyst known for his sober outlook, echoed similar caution, emphasizing that structural weaknesses remain despite short-term gains.
Still, not all voices are bearish. IncomeSharks, a popular trading account, stressed strategic planning over speculation:
“I think we’ll go down before going up, and I’m prepared for that. If we open higher, we might retest — I’ll rotate into altcoins. My target remains $34K.”
U.S. CPI Data Looms Large This Week
All eyes are on June 10, when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases May’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report — a pivotal moment for global markets.
With inflation hovering near 40-year highs, the CPI reading will heavily influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Even modest deviations from forecasts could trigger volatility across equities and digital assets.
Rising oil prices, supply chain disruptions, and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to fuel inflationary pressures. The Fed’s aggressive rate hikes have tightened financial conditions, reducing liquidity in markets — a trend that directly impacts risk assets like Bitcoin.
Charu Chanana, Market Strategist at Saxo Capital Markets, warned:
“Market liquidity is drying up, and this will affect equities. We still expect further downside.”
Meanwhile, broader macro indicators point to tightening conditions. QCP Capital highlighted a recent contraction in the U.S. M2 money supply — only the third such decline in two decades — driven by rising interest rates and increased use of the Fed’s reverse repo facility (RRP).
“This withdrawal of capital from the financial system is amplifying liquidity crunches. We expect continued pressure on crypto prices.”
Miner "Capitulation" May Be Imminent
One of the most telling signs of market bottoms is miner behavior. Historically, when mining profitability collapses, operators are forced to sell reserves to cover costs — a phase known as "miner capitulation."
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, recently flagged early signs of this phase using the Hash Ribbons indicator — a trusted tool for identifying miner stress.
“Hash Ribbons show miner capitulation is near. Mining margins are being squeezed.”
The model suggests conditions resemble those seen in March 2020 — just before a major market bottom and subsequent bull run. But Edwards emphasizes this isn’t a sell signal.
“This is not the time to exit. Historically, the end of miner capitulation creates some of the best long-term buying opportunities in Bitcoin.”
Regulatory pressures add to the strain. New York’s recent ban on certain mining operations highlights growing environmental and policy scrutiny — another headwind for operators already facing margin compression.
Network Fundamentals Show Resilience
Despite price pressure and potential miner stress, Bitcoin’s underlying network remains robust.
Hash rate — a measure of computational power securing the network — has held above 200 exahashes per second (EH/s), signaling that most miners remain active. This stability suggests confidence in long-term prospects despite short-term pain.
The upcoming difficulty adjustment will see a drop of less than 1%, indicating relatively calm conditions in the mining sector. In contrast, the prior adjustment saw a 4.3% decline — the largest since July 2021 — reflecting sharper shifts in miner participation.
Robert Breedlove, a prominent Bitcoin advocate and podcast host, noted:
“Bitcoin is about 50% cheaper than a year ago but 20% stronger in terms of hash rate. That shows entrepreneurial mobilization — people are building despite adversity.”
This divergence between price and network strength underscores Bitcoin’s maturing fundamentals.
Whale Accumulation Signals Confidence
Large Bitcoin holders — often called "whales" — are sending strong signals of confidence.
According to on-chain analytics firm Santiment, addresses holding 1,000 BTC or more now control more supply than at any point in the past year.
“Whale accumulation remains at elevated levels — a hopeful sign for long-term holders.”
Additionally, data from CryptoQuant shows a continued decline in exchange reserves — meaning fewer coins are being moved to exchanges for sale. Current reserve levels are comparable to those seen in October 2018, a period that preceded a major bull run.
This "quiet accumulation" by whales suggests strong conviction that current prices present a buying opportunity rather than a reason to exit.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What caused Bitcoin’s nine-week losing streak?
A: A combination of macroeconomic factors — including rising inflation, Fed rate hikes, shrinking money supply (M2), and global risk aversion — contributed to prolonged selling pressure across risk assets like Bitcoin.
Q: Is miner capitulation bullish or bearish for Bitcoin?
A: While capitulation often marks short-term pain and increased selling pressure, historically it has preceded major market bottoms. Once selling exhausts, it sets the stage for strong recoveries.
Q: Why are whale movements important?
A: Whales typically have better information and longer time horizons. When they accumulate during downturns, it often signals confidence in future price appreciation.
Q: How does U.S. CPI data affect Bitcoin?
A: CPI influences expectations for monetary policy. Higher inflation may lead to tighter monetary conditions, reducing liquidity and pressuring risk assets like BTC. Lower-than-expected CPI could spark relief rallies.
Q: What does declining exchange reserves mean?
A: It means fewer coins are being sent to exchanges for selling — a sign of reduced selling pressure and growing holder confidence.
Q: Can Bitcoin rally without stock market support?
A: While correlated in the short term, Bitcoin has historically decoupled during major macro shifts. Its fixed supply makes it a potential hedge against inflation over time.