The first half of 2025 has cemented one of Bitcoin’s most challenging periods in history, marked by a staggering 37.9% price drop in June alone—one of the worst monthly performances since 2011. Amid macroeconomic pressures and dwindling market confidence, a profound transformation is unfolding on-chain: short-term speculators and casual investors—often dubbed “Bitcoin tourists”—are vanishing, leaving behind a resilient core of long-term holders.
This shift isn't just reflected in price charts. Chain data reveals a deep structural change in network activity, supply distribution, and user behavior. As speculative interest wanes, a new era defined by accumulation, self-custody, and conviction is emerging.
👉 Discover how on-chain trends reveal who’s really holding Bitcoin today.
The End of Bitcoin Tourism
One of the most telling indicators of market sentiment is on-chain activity. High transaction volume and frequent address movements typically signal speculative fervor—hallmarks of bull markets. Conversely, declining activity often reflects disengagement, characteristic of bear markets.
Today, nearly every on-chain metric points to historically low levels of user engagement—levels last seen during the deepest phases of the 2018–2019 bear market.
- Active addresses have dropped 13%, from over 1 million per day in November 2024 to around 870,000 today.
- Active entities, a more accurate measure that clusters related addresses into unique users, now hover near 244,000 daily—firmly within the lower range of bear market norms.
- Net entity growth, which tracks the difference between new and departing users, has collapsed to just ~7,000 net new entities per day—comparable to the lows of 2018 and 2019.
These figures suggest that marginal participants—the so-called "tourists"—have largely exited the network. There is little evidence of new demand or widespread interest. Instead, what remains is a stabilized base of committed users: the HODLers.
Why This Matters
Low activity doesn’t mean weakness—it can signal strength. When speculation dies down and short-term traders leave, the market clears out noise, allowing long-term fundamentals to reassert themselves. This phase often precedes major turning points.
The Resilience of the HODLer Base
While speculative activity has dried up, core network metrics show surprising resilience.
The number of addresses with non-zero balances has reached an all-time high of 42.2 million—an increase despite the brutal price environment. Historically, major sell-offs have led to significant wallet closures:
- In early 2018, over 7 million addresses (24.4% of total) emptied their wallets.
- In May 2021, around 1 million addresses exited during the mining migration.
- In May 2025, only 430,000 addresses disappeared—just 1% of the total.
The shrinking scale of these exoduses suggests growing conviction among Bitcoin holders. Even in downturns, users are less likely to abandon their holdings entirely. This increasing resilience underscores a maturing ecosystem where ownership is becoming more permanent.
👉 See how long-term holders are shaping Bitcoin’s future supply dynamics.
Exchange Divergence: A Shift Toward Self-Custody
Exchanges remain central to Bitcoin’s infrastructure, but their role is changing dramatically.
Historically, exchange inflows peak during bull runs as traders prepare to sell at highs. Outflows dominate during bear markets as users move assets to private wallets—often signaling strong conviction.
In recent months, we’ve seen a sustained net outflow from exchanges, with total reserves falling to levels not seen since mid-2018. Since March 2023, over 750,000 BTC have left exchange wallets—with 142,500 BTC exiting in just the past three months (18.8% of total outflow).
This trend accelerated in June 2025, when exchanges saw their largest monthly outflow ever—150,000 BTC—representing 5–6% of total exchange balances. This stands in stark contrast to mid-2024, when BTC flooded into exchanges ahead of price corrections.
Exchange-Specific Trends
Not all exchanges are losing supply equally:
- Coinbase has seen a continuous net outflow of approximately 450,000 BTC over two years. These funds are moving to wallets unassociated with known entities—possibly institutional custody solutions.
- Binance, meanwhile, has gained about 300,000 BTC net over the same period and now holds more Bitcoin than any other exchange.
This divergence suggests shifting trust dynamics and evolving custody preferences across different user bases.
Where Did All the Bitcoin Go?
As exchange reserves shrink, the destination of these coins becomes critical.
Data shows that the majority of withdrawn Bitcoin is flowing into highly illiquid wallets—those with little to no history of spending. Since July 2024, 223,000 BTC have been added to non-spendable supply, indicating strong accumulation behavior.
Even more telling is the simultaneous accumulation by two distinct groups:
- “Shrimps” (holders with less than 1 BTC)
- “Whales” (entities holding over 1,000 BTC)
Both groups are scoring near maximum on the Trend Accumulation Score, a metric measuring consistent balance growth over time.
Shrimps: The Unsung Accumulators
Despite limited capital, small holders are buying aggressively:
- They’re increasing their collective holdings at a rate of 60,460 BTC per month—the fastest pace in history.
- This represents 0.32% of circulating supply monthly, surpassing even the accumulation rate seen at the 2017 all-time high.
Interestingly, this surge occurs even as price trends downward—suggesting many view current levels (~$20,000) as highly attractive.
Whales: Strategic Buyers Return
Large holders are also active. Since April 2025, whales have consistently withdrawn BTC from exchanges at increasing rates:
- In June alone, whale withdrawals hit 140,000 BTC/month—the second-highest rate in five years.
- Total whale withdrawals from tracked exchanges now exceed 8.69 million BTC.
Their behavior remains highly correlated with market cycles: buying during fear, selling during euphoria.
Key Takeaways and Market Outlook
Bitcoin’s current bear market is not a sign of failure—but a necessary cleansing process.
Speculative excesses have been purged. Tourists have left. What remains is a leaner, more resilient network dominated by long-term believers. On-chain data confirms this:
- Declining activity signals reduced speculation.
- Rising non-zero addresses reflect enduring adoption.
- Massive exchange outflows point to growing preference for self-custody.
- Coordinated accumulation by both small and large holders reveals strong conviction.
This environment sets the stage for future growth. As supply tightens and sentiment eventually shifts, the foundation will be laid for the next phase of Bitcoin’s evolution.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does “Bitcoin tourist” mean?
A: A “Bitcoin tourist” refers to short-term investors or speculators who enter the market during price rallies but exit quickly when volatility increases or prices fall. They lack long-term conviction and often contribute to bubble dynamics.
Q: Why are exchange outflows bullish for Bitcoin?
A: When Bitcoin leaves exchanges, it becomes less liquid and harder to sell immediately. Sustained outflows suggest users are moving coins to personal wallets for long-term storage—reducing available supply and potentially supporting future price increases.
Q: Are small holders really still buying despite losses?
A: Yes. Data shows that holders with less than 1 BTC are accumulating at record rates. Many see current prices as a buying opportunity after significant corrections.
Q: How do we know if whales are accumulating versus just moving funds?
A: By analyzing movement patterns and spending behavior. Whales showing consistent balance growth without subsequent selling activity are considered accumulators. Tools like entity clustering help distinguish real accumulation from internal transfers.
Q: Is low on-chain activity always bearish?
A: Not necessarily. While high activity often signals bullish momentum, prolonged low activity during bear markets can indicate that weak hands have already sold. The remaining stable base may set the groundwork for future rallies.
Q: What could trigger renewed market participation?
A: Potential catalysts include macroeconomic stabilization, regulatory clarity, institutional adoption milestones, or technological upgrades like Layer-2 scaling solutions that improve usability and reduce fees.
👉 Explore real-time on-chain data to track who’s buying—and who’s selling—right now.