The prospect of an XRP spot ETF gaining regulatory approval is becoming increasingly tangible. According to Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, the likelihood of an XRP spot ETF being greenlit has surged to 83%, up from 73% just weeks ago. This notable jump reflects growing confidence among investors and institutions alike, especially as major financial players like Grayscale and Franklin Templeton enter the race.
With Ripple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse actively advocating for crypto ETFs and the success of Bitcoin spot ETFs setting a strong precedent, momentum is building. Could this be the final stretch before XRP achieves a major institutional breakthrough?
XRP Spot ETF Approval Odds Jump to 83%
At the beginning of the month, market sentiment placed the odds of an XRP spot ETF approval at 73%. Now, that number has climbed to 83%, signaling a shift in market expectations. This rise isn’t arbitrary—it’s fueled by real-world developments: increasing institutional filings, strategic partnerships, and sustained price strength in XRP.
Polymarket’s data is derived from real-money trading activity, making it a reliable barometer of investor sentiment. The upward trend suggests that more traders and analysts believe the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may soon yield to mounting pressure and evolving regulatory clarity.
👉 Discover how institutional adoption could reshape XRP’s future.
SEC Delays Decision – Final Ruling Expected in October
Despite the rising optimism, the SEC has not yet approved any XRP spot ETF application. However, delays are not uncommon in the regulatory review process, particularly for groundbreaking financial products involving digital assets.
Several prominent firms—including Grayscale, Bitwise, CoinShares, and Franklin Templeton—have already submitted formal applications. Their involvement signals strong institutional interest and regulatory preparedness. Given the SEC’s recent approval of multiple Bitcoin spot ETFs, many analysts believe XRP could be next in line for similar treatment.
October is widely anticipated as the potential decision window. Historically, the SEC tends to issue final rulings on ETF applications during this period, especially after comment periods and public feedback cycles conclude.
Brad Garlinghouse: ETFs Are the Gateway to Mass Adoption
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has been vocal about the transformative potential of XRP ETFs. In a recent episode of Ripple’s “Crypto in One Minute” podcast, he emphasized that ETFs offer a regulated, secure pathway for traditional investors to gain exposure to digital assets—without needing to navigate exchanges or manage private keys.
Garlinghouse believes that ETFs can bridge the gap between legacy finance and the crypto economy. By offering a familiar investment vehicle, XRP ETFs could attract pension funds, mutual funds, and retail investors who have previously stayed on the sidelines due to complexity or security concerns.
His vision aligns with broader industry trends: simplification, compliance, and accessibility are key drivers of crypto’s next growth phase.
👉 See how regulatory clarity is unlocking new investment opportunities in crypto.
Bitcoin Spot ETFs Set a Powerful Precedent
The success of Bitcoin spot ETFs offers a compelling blueprint for what could come next with XRP. Since their approval in early 2024, Bitcoin ETFs have become one of the fastest-growing asset classes in financial history.
Key metrics highlight their explosive adoption:
- Total market capitalization: $130.77 billion
- 24-hour trading volume: $4.7 billion
- BlackRock’s IBIT ETF assets under management (AUM): $71.42 billion
Major asset managers like BlackRock, Fidelity, ARK/21Shares, and Valkyrie have poured billions into Bitcoin ETFs, demonstrating deep institutional confidence. If XRP follows a similar trajectory, the implications for price and liquidity could be profound.
ETF approval would not only validate XRP as an investable asset but also trigger automated inclusion in financial platforms, robo-advisors, and retirement accounts—dramatically expanding its reach.
Growing Demand: XRP Futures and Leveraged ETFs Gain Traction
Even before a spot ETF arrives, XRP-based financial products are gaining momentum in regulated markets:
- Volatility Shares launched the first XRP futures ETF in May, offering indirect exposure through futures contracts.
- CME Group introduced its own XRP futures product this month, reinforcing institutional demand.
- Tectrium unveiled a 2x Long Daily XRP ETF, catering to traders seeking leveraged exposure.
These products have seen strong initial uptake, indicating that institutional players are already positioning themselves for broader XRP adoption. Futures and leveraged ETFs serve as early indicators of market readiness—when combined with rising spot ETF approval odds, they paint a picture of accelerating acceptance.
XRP Price Performance: Strong Momentum Across Timeframes
Market sentiment is also reflected in XRP’s price action. The asset has delivered consistent gains across multiple timeframes:
- Current price: $2.34
- 24-hour change: +1%
- 30-day gain: +6.8%
- 1-year return: +335.1%
This sustained rally suggests that investors are pricing in positive regulatory outcomes. Unlike speculative pumps, this uptrend is supported by fundamentals—increasing adoption, use case expansion in cross-border payments, and growing institutional interest.
A spot ETF approval could act as a powerful catalyst, potentially unlocking a new wave of capital inflows similar to what Bitcoin experienced post-ETF launch.
👉 Explore how ETF-driven demand could impact XRP’s price trajectory.
Final Thoughts
The stars may be aligning for XRP. With approval odds at 83%, major financial institutions on board, and Ripple’s leadership championing the cause, the path toward an XRP spot ETF is clearer than ever. While regulatory hurdles remain, the precedent set by Bitcoin ETFs and the growing ecosystem of XRP-linked financial products suggest that approval is not just possible—it may be probable.
If the SEC gives the green light by October, XRP could enter a new era of mainstream investment and liquidity.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
When is the SEC expected to decide on the XRP spot ETF?
Experts anticipate a final ruling from the SEC by October 2025, following standard review timelines and public comment periods.
Which companies have filed for an XRP spot ETF?
Major applicants include Grayscale, Bitwise, CoinShares, and Franklin Templeton—each bringing significant credibility and resources to the process.
How has XRP performed ahead of potential ETF approval?
XRP has surged 335% over the past year, with steady gains in daily and monthly performance, reflecting strong investor confidence and market momentum.
What impact could an XRP ETF have on price?
Historical data from Bitcoin ETFs suggests significant price appreciation post-approval due to increased institutional buying and broader market access.
Are there already XRP-based ETFs available?
Yes—futures-based and leveraged XRP ETFs are already live through providers like Volatility Shares, CME Group, and Tectrium.
Why does Brad Garlinghouse support ETFs?
He views them as a secure, regulated entry point for traditional investors who want crypto exposure without managing wallets or private keys.
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