Bitcoin has once again captured global attention in 2025, not just for its price movements but for the evolving dynamics behind its market structure. After months of volatile trading between $50,000 and $70,000, investors are asking a critical question: Has the bull run truly begun, or are we still in the buildup phase? To answer this, we turn to on-chain analytics—data-driven insights that cut through market noise and reveal the true behavior of investors.
By examining five key on-chain metrics—MVRV Z-Score, Puell Multiple, 200-week Moving Average (WMA), RHODL Ratio, and LTH/STH Realized Cap Distribution—we can assess whether Bitcoin is approaching a peak or still has room to grow. These indicators help decode investor sentiment, miner economics, and long-term holding trends, offering a clearer picture of where the market stands today.
MVRV Z-Score: Still Below Historical Bull Market Peaks
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score is a powerful tool for identifying overbought and oversold conditions in the Bitcoin market. It compares Bitcoin’s current market value (price × supply) with its realized value—the sum of all coins valued at their last movement price—effectively filtering out short-term speculation.
When the MVRV Z-Score spikes into the pink zone, it typically signals a market top, as seen in late 2017 and 2021. Conversely, values in the green zone suggest deep undervaluation, often marking strong accumulation phases.
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In 2025, despite Bitcoin surpassing previous all-time highs, the MVRV Z-Score remains less than half of prior cycle peaks. This indicates that while prices have risen, the underlying market euphoria hasn’t reached historical extremes. In other words, we may be in a mature phase of the cycle—but not yet at the peak.
This divergence suggests that significant investor groups, particularly long-term holders, have not fully exited their positions. The absence of widespread profit-taking implies that the market hasn’t overheated, leaving room for further upside before reaching a true top.
Puell Multiple: Miner Revenue Remains Subdued
The Puell Multiple measures miner revenue relative to its 365-day moving average. Since miners sell newly minted BTC to cover operational costs, this metric reflects supply pressure and profitability across the network.
Historically, Puell Multiple readings above 4–5x have coincided with major bull market tops. During the 2021 cycle, it briefly spiked to over 6x. In contrast, the 2025 rally saw the Puell Multiple peak at just 2.4, signaling relatively modest returns for miners.
Several factors contribute to this:
- Post-halving reduction in block rewards
- Rising electricity and infrastructure costs
- Increased competition in mining operations
Data from major mining firms show that the average cost to mine one Bitcoin now exceeds **$51,887**, up sharply from $19,344 in previous years. With spot prices hovering near these levels, many miners operate at break-even or even at a loss.
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This cost-pressure environment reduces selling incentives only among the most efficient operators. Less competitive miners may be forced to sell holdings or exit entirely, potentially tightening supply over time. However, the subdued Puell Multiple confirms that mining profitability hasn't triggered speculative frenzy—another sign that the market isn’t overheating.
PlanB’s 200-Week Moving Average: Support Holds Strong
The 200-week moving average (WMA) is one of the most reliable long-term support indicators in Bitcoin’s price history. Developed by analyst PlanB, it has served as a critical floor during past bear markets and a launchpad for new bull runs.
From 2018–2019 and again during the 2020 pandemic crash, Bitcoin found strong support at or near the 200-WMA line before resuming upward momentum. Even during corrections within bull markets, price rarely closed significantly below this level.
In 2025, Bitcoin has maintained trading activity well above the 200-WMA. This sustained support suggests that long-term confidence remains intact. As PlanB himself noted, historical patterns show that after a 4x increase from a cycle low (which we've already seen), further gains of 7–10x are possible in the following phases.
With technical structure holding firm and no major breakdowns observed, the current pullback appears more like a healthy consolidation than a reversal. This strengthens the case that the mid-to-late stage of the bull run could still lie ahead.
RHODL Ratio: Speculative Frenzy Cooling Off
The RHODL Ratio, created by analyst Philip Swift, evaluates the balance between short-term traders and long-term holders by comparing UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs) held for different durations.
A high RHODL Ratio—especially when short-term holdings (1 week – 1 month) outweigh long-term ones (1–2 years)—signals intense speculation. Red zones on the chart often precede market tops.
Currently, the RHODL Ratio shows a declining trend, indicating reduced speculative appetite. While there was a brief spike following ETF approvals and price breakthroughs in early 2025, momentum faded as volatility persisted without sustained new inflows.
This cooling doesn’t mean investors are exiting en masse—it suggests instead that early FOMO-driven buyers have taken profits, and the market is transitioning toward a more stable phase dominated by strategic accumulation rather than panic buying.
In prior cycles, such transitions preceded extended uptrends once institutional participation ramped up. Today’s environment mirrors that pattern: retail excitement has waned slightly, but deeper structural demand appears to be building.
LTH/STH Realized Cap Distribution: No Clear “Blow-Off” Phase Yet
Another crucial indicator comes from tracking the realized market cap distribution between Long-Term Holders (LTHs) and Short-Term Holders (STHs). When STHs control a larger share of realized value (red line above blue), it often marks peak market activity and potential exhaustion.
A crossover where the STH line crosses above LTH has historically signaled the start of a “parabolic” or “blow-off” phase—the final leg of a bull run driven by latecomer speculation.
In March 2025, such a crossover briefly occurred—but reversed within weeks. This false breakout likely stemmed from ETF-driven inflows triggering short-term buying pressure. However, without sustained capital injection, long-term holders quickly reabsorbed supply.
This failed signal echoes patterns seen in 2016, when a similar short-lived surge preceded a four-month consolidation. Today’s data suggests we may be experiencing a comparable pause—one that could set the stage for a stronger move later in the cycle.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Does Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs mean we’re at the top of the bull market?
A: Not necessarily. Price alone is misleading. On-chain metrics like MVRV Z-Score and Puell Multiple show current valuations are still below historical peaks, suggesting room for further growth.
Q: What does a low Puell Multiple indicate about Bitcoin’s future?
A: A low Puell Multiple reflects weak miner profitability post-halving. While challenging for miners, it can reduce sell pressure and signal early or mid-cycle conditions—not a top.
Q: Can Bitcoin drop below the 200-week moving average?
A: Yes, but historically such breaks are rare and often followed by strong rebounds. Holding above this level indicates strong underlying demand.
Q: Is retail interest fading if RHODL Ratio is declining?
A: Some retail FOMO has cooled, but this often precedes institutional-led rallies. Lower speculation can actually extend a bull market by preventing overheating.
Q: What would confirm the start of Bitcoin’s “main impulse wave”?
A: A sustained STH > LTH realized cap crossover combined with rising exchange inflows and elevated MVRV Z-Score would strongly suggest parabolic phase onset.
Q: Are ETFs changing traditional Bitcoin cycle patterns?
A: Yes. Spot ETFs bring continuous institutional capital flow, potentially smoothing out cycles and extending uptrends compared to previous halving-driven rallies.
While Bitcoin’s price action in 2025 has been dramatic, on-chain data reveals a market that’s not yet overheated. Core indicators—MVRV Z-Score, Puell Multiple, 200-week WMA, RHODL Ratio, and LTH/STH distribution—collectively suggest we are likely in the mid-to-late stage of accumulation, not the final blow-off phase.
With institutional adoption accelerating through spot ETFs and macroeconomic conditions evolving, this cycle may defy traditional timing models. But one thing is clear: the story isn’t over yet.
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