The Bitcoin market in mid-June 2025 presents a complex and increasingly cautious picture. Despite brief rallies toward the $106,000–$108,000 range, onchain metrics suggest weakening momentum and investor hesitation. While some indicators show resilience, the overall signal points to a market at a crossroads—balancing short-term volatility with long-term structural shifts. This analysis dives into key onchain data, derivatives activity, supply dynamics, whale behavior, and miner flows to assess the current state of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Active Addresses: Momentum Fades at Price Peaks
Between June 11 and June 18, the Bitcoin network recorded 1,022,033 active addresses, reflecting transactional engagement across the blockchain. Notably, on June 11, a divergence emerged: while price dipped, active addresses increased—hinting at accumulation or increased network usage amid pullbacks.
However, when tracking the 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of active addresses, a concerning trend appears. The SMA crossed below the price trajectory, coinciding with a downward price movement. This technical crossover often signals weakening participation and potential exits from the market—particularly around the $104,000 level.
Active Sending Addresses on the Rise
Active sending addresses climbed during this period, peaking at 711,804 on the day Bitcoin reached its highest price. This surge suggests heightened movement of coins during rallies—potentially indicating profit-taking or redistribution rather than long-term holding.
👉 Discover how real-time blockchain analytics can help you stay ahead of market shifts.
Active Receiving Addresses Drop Amid Price Highs
Conversely, active receiving addresses—a proxy for buyer engagement—showed a significant decline. At the peak price of $108,000, only 653,953 addresses were actively receiving BTC. This imbalance between sending and receiving activity suggests that fewer new buyers stepped in at higher levels, raising concerns about demand sustainability.
Onchain Valuation Metrics: Cooling Investor Returns
MVRV Ratio Declines
The Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) Ratio fell from 2.29 on June 11 to 2.203 by June 17, a drop of 4.18%. With Bitcoin’s price down 3.68% over the same period, this indicates shrinking profit margins for investors. A declining MVRV ratio typically reflects cooling market euphoria and reduced upside momentum.
Realized Price Inches Up
Despite price declines, the Realized Price—the average cost basis of all BTC in circulation—rose slightly from $47,252 to $47,492 (+0.51%). This suggests older coins are being spent at higher valuations, possibly due to long-term holders rebalancing portfolios or exiting positions.
SOPR Shows Narrowing Profits
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) declined from 1.015 to 1.003, indicating that spent coins are generating just barely positive returns. A SOPR near 1.0 signals a market where most transactions break even—often a precursor to consolidation or reversal.
Derivatives Market: Volatility Driven by Geopolitics
Open Interest Drops Amid Liquidations
Open interest in Bitcoin futures fell sharply from $35.8 billion to $33.6 billion by June 14, signaling widespread position closures or liquidations. Although OI rebounded slightly on June 16, it dropped again on June 17 amid escalating tensions between Iran and Israel.
This pattern suggests that recent price movements were driven more by short-term speculation than sustained trend-following. The lack of durable open interest growth reflects investor caution amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Funding Rates: Bullish Sentiment Wavers
Funding rates started strong on June 11–12, indicating persistent long-side leverage despite price drops—bullish in tone. However, rates weakened significantly on June 13–14 as risk aversion spiked.
A sharp recovery on June 16 showed renewed risk appetite, but this optimism collapsed on June 17 alongside price action. As of June 18, funding rates remained positive but moderated—suggesting traders still lean bullish but are hedging exposure.
$656M in Long Liquidations Signal Pain
This week saw $656 million in long liquidations**, compared to just **$197 million in short liquidations. The heaviest long squeezes occurred on June 12 and June 17—days marked by sudden geopolitical headlines and sharp price drops.
| Date | Long Liquidations (M$) | Short Liquidations (M$) |
|---|---|---|
| June 11 | 27.34 | 13.88 |
| June 12 | 363.29 | 10.46 |
| June 13 | 128.14 | 41.48 |
| June 17 | 93.74 | 27.27 |
| Total | 656.98 | 197.07 |
The disproportionate long liquidation volume highlights excessive leverage and vulnerability to downside shocks.
Supply Distribution: Shifts Among Mid-Tier Holders
Bitcoin’s total supply now stands at 19,879,886 BTC, with 3,237 BTC newly mined this week. Network velocity dipped slightly from 12.91 to 12.87, suggesting marginally reduced transactional turnover.
Wallet distribution reveals telling trends:
- <1 BTC wallets: Decreased by -0.15%
- 1–10 BTC: Down -0.16%
- 10–100 BTC: Up +0.13%
- 100–1k BTC: Increased +0.37%
- 1k–10k BTC: Down -0.44%
- 10k+ BTC: Down -0.28%
This shift indicates consolidation among mid-sized holders (10–1k BTC), while large wallets (>1k BTC) reduced exposure—possibly locking in profits or moving assets to cold storage.
Exchange Reserves: Net Outflow Amid Price Drop
Bitcoin reserves across exchanges declined from 2,503,122 BTC to 2,489,214 BTC, a net outflow of 13,908 BTC (-0.56%). This suggests investors are withdrawing coins—potentially for long-term holding.
Yet, despite this bullish structural move, price fell by 3.6%, highlighting that off-exchange accumulation isn’t currently enough to counter broader selling pressure or sentiment drag.
Fees and Miner Activity: Mixed Signals
Transaction Fees Fluctuate with Volatility
Average transaction fees spiked to 0.00001858 BTC on June 13 amid price swings but dropped to a weekly low of 0.00000933 BTC by June 15. By June 17, fees rebounded to 0.00001766 BTC, showing renewed network usage.
Total fees followed a similar pattern, peaking at 6.53 BTC/day before falling to 2.63 BTC/day, then recovering to 6.26 BTC/day.
Miners Accumulate Amid Price Volatility
Miner wallets saw a net inflow of +657 BTC this week. Despite price declines, miners held or added to reserves—possibly signaling confidence or reduced need to sell mined coins.
Daily netflow was volatile: large inflows on June 13 (+924 BTC) and June 16 (+1,285 BTC), offset by outflows on June 14 (-1,404 BTC) and June 17 (-264 BTC).
👉 Learn how miner behavior can predict upcoming market turns before they happen.
Transaction Volume and Whale Movements
Total transactions rose 2.18% week-on-week to 2,394,602, with peaks on June 12 (425k) and lows on June 14 (273k). Correlation between price and transaction count was mixed—indicating market indecision.
Token transfers fell by 9.94% to 3,715,566 BTC, though June 17 saw the highest daily volume (687k BTC). Positive price-transfer correlation returned late in the week—potentially signaling renewed confidence.
Whale Activity: Selling at Peaks
The Exchange Whale Ratio peaked at 0.573 on June 11, indicating heavy whale presence on centralized exchanges—typically bearish as it precedes selling. The ratio dipped to 0.497 by June 16 but rebounded to 0.584, suggesting renewed exchange activity.
Whales have reportedly accumulated $240 million worth of BTC in 2025, reflecting institutional confidence. However, their use of exchanges for exits could trigger short-term downside pressure.
Summary of Key Metrics
| Metric | Trend |
|---|---|
| Active Addresses | Decline |
| MVRV & SOPR | Decline |
| Derivatives OI | Neutral |
| Supply Distribution | Decline |
| Exchange Reserves | Decline |
| Fees & Revenues | Rise |
| Miner Flows | Decline |
| Transactions | Neutral |
| Whale Activity | Neutral |
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What does a declining MVRV ratio indicate for Bitcoin?
A: A falling MVRV ratio suggests that market value is growing slower than realized value—often signaling reduced profitability and weakening bullish momentum.
Q: Why did open interest drop despite price recovery attempts?
A: The drop reflects liquidations and risk-off behavior due to geopolitical tensions and lack of strong trend confirmation—traders remain cautious.
Q: Are whales buying or selling Bitcoin currently?
A: Whales are both accumulating long-term and selling short-term at peaks. Their dual behavior shows strategic positioning rather than panic.
Q: What does rising miner accumulation mean for the market?
A: When miners hold instead of selling newly mined BTC, it reduces sell pressure—a historically bullish sign if sustained.
Q: Is the drop in exchange reserves bullish?
A: Yes—net outflows suggest coins are moving to self-custody, reducing liquid supply and potential sell-side pressure.
Q: Could Bitcoin rebound despite weakening signals?
A: Yes—short-term weakness doesn’t negate long-term fundamentals. Institutional inflows and halving effects may fuel future rallies.
👉 Stay ahead with real-time onchain data and advanced trading tools—start exploring today.