In a revealing interview, Geoff Kendrick, head of crypto research at Standard Chartered Bank, outlines a bold new trajectory for Bitcoin, driven by growing instability in the traditional financial system. As trust in legacy banking wavers, investors are increasingly turning to digital assets—especially Bitcoin—as a modern form of financial resilience.
With Bitcoin recently surpassing key psychological price thresholds, Kendrick argues that the macroeconomic backdrop is now more favorable than ever for rapid appreciation. His forecast? A climb to $100,000 by the end of 2025, fueled by institutional interest, regulatory evolution, and structural shifts in investor behavior.
The Banking Crisis as a Catalyst
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the forced merger of Credit Suisse into UBS weren’t just isolated incidents—they were warning signs of deeper fragility within the traditional financial (TradFi) system. According to Kendrick, these events reignited interest in Bitcoin’s original value proposition: a decentralized, trustless, peer-to-peer digital currency outside the control of central banks and financial intermediaries.
“Bitcoin was born out of the 2008 financial crisis. It’s no coincidence that it’s rising again amid fresh banking turmoil.”
This resurgence isn’t speculative noise. Kendrick points to a measurable shift in investor sentiment—particularly among those who previously dismissed or shorted crypto. As confidence in banks erodes, Bitcoin is increasingly viewed not just as a speculative asset, but as a digital safe haven, much like gold.
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Bitcoin vs. Gold: The Digital Gold Narrative Gains Ground
One of the most compelling developments in recent months has been Bitcoin’s growing correlation with gold. Over the past six months, both assets have moved in tandem as investors seek hedges against systemic risk.
But there’s a key difference: Bitcoin is still largely unregulated, which limits institutional adoption. While pension funds and asset managers have long held gold as a portfolio hedge, they remain cautious about crypto due to regulatory uncertainty.
Kendrick believes this will change.
“Once we see clearer regulatory frameworks—especially in major markets like the U.S. and EU—institutional capital will begin flowing into Bitcoin more aggressively,” he explains. “That inflow will reduce volatility and reinforce its status as digital gold.”
As regulation improves and confidence grows, Bitcoin could start capturing market share from gold in diversified portfolios. This shift wouldn’t just boost prices—it would create a virtuous cycle of adoption, stability, and further investment.
Price Forecast: From $20K to $100K in 18 Months
Kendrick breaks down his price target into clear, incremental stages:
- Pre-SVB Collapse (March 2023): Bitcoin traded around $20,000.
- Post-Banking Crisis Surge: Fears over bank stability pushed prices to $30,000.
- Bitcoin Dominance Recovery: As investors rotated out of riskier altcoins, Bitcoin’s market share rose from ~40% to ~46%, adding another $10,000 in value.
- Miner Selling Pressure Subsides: After a period of heavy coin liquidation by miners, that supply overhang is easing—potentially unlocking another $10,000.
- Fed Policy Pivot: With interest rate hikes expected to end in mid-2025, risk assets like tech and crypto should benefit. A recovering Nasdaq could push Bitcoin to $60,000 by end-2025.
- Final Surge to $100K: The April 2024 halving—reducing new Bitcoin supply by 50%—will set the stage for a powerful bull run into 2025.
Bitcoin Dominance: A Sign of Maturation
Bitcoin’s dominance—its share of total cryptocurrency market capitalization—has climbed steadily to around 46% and could rise to 55–60% by late 2025.
This isn’t just a sign of investor caution; it reflects a strategic rotation toward proven, liquid assets during uncertain times.
“Altcoins tend to outperform in late bull markets,” Kendrick notes. “But right now, we’re in the early-to-mid phase of a recovery cycle. Investors want safety and liquidity—and that means Bitcoin.”
He expects dominance to peak around the second half of 2025, after which altcoins may regain momentum as broader market confidence strengthens.
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The Role of Regulation and Institutional Adoption
For all its momentum, Bitcoin’s long-term success hinges on one critical factor: regulation.
Without clear rules, institutional adoption remains limited. But Kendrick sees progress on the horizon—particularly with growing political recognition of crypto’s role in financial infrastructure.
“Regulation doesn’t have to mean restriction,” he says. “Smart regulation can enhance trust, reduce fraud, and open the door to trillions in institutional capital.”
ETF approvals, clearer tax guidelines, and custodial frameworks are all steps in the right direction. As these pieces fall into place, Bitcoin could transition from speculative asset to core portfolio holding.
FAQ: Your Questions Answered
Why is Bitcoin rising now?
Bitcoin is gaining strength due to renewed concerns about traditional banking stability, increased institutional interest, and anticipation of tighter supply following the 2024 halving event.
Is Bitcoin really “digital gold”?
Yes—increasingly so. Like gold, Bitcoin is seen as a hedge against inflation and financial instability. Its limited supply and decentralized nature make it attractive during times of economic uncertainty.
What could stop Bitcoin from reaching $100K?
Major risks include prolonged aggressive monetary tightening by central banks, adverse regulatory actions, or a prolonged recession that suppresses risk appetite across all asset classes.
How does the Fed’s policy affect Bitcoin?
Bitcoin behaves like a risk asset. When interest rates rise, capital tends to move away from speculative investments. But once rate hikes pause or reverse—as expected in 2025—Bitcoin typically performs well.
What is Bitcoin dominance and why does it matter?
Bitcoin dominance measures BTC’s share of the total crypto market cap. Rising dominance signals investor preference for safety and liquidity, often preceding broader market rallies.
When is the next Bitcoin halving?
The next halving is scheduled for April 2024, when block rewards will drop from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. Historically, halvings have preceded major price increases within 12–18 months.
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Final Thoughts: A New Chapter for Bitcoin
Geoff Kendrick’s outlook paints a compelling picture: Bitcoin is no longer just a niche experiment. It’s evolving into a legitimate macro asset—one that responds to real-world financial stress, attracts institutional capital, and offers a viable alternative to traditional safe havens.
With banking sector vulnerabilities still unresolved, regulatory clarity on the horizon, and supply constraints looming, the path to $100,000 looks increasingly plausible.
For investors watching from the sidelines, the message is clear: Bitcoin has rediscovered its mojo—and this time, it may be here to stay.