The growing momentum behind U.S. crypto adoption has captured Wall Street’s attention, and few stand to benefit more than Coinbase Global (COIN.US), according to a recent analyst report. Bernstein Research has initiated coverage on the leading cryptocurrency exchange with an “Outperform” rating, citing strong tailwinds from shifting political dynamics—particularly former President Donald Trump’s public ambition to transform the United States into the world’s cryptocurrency capital.
This bold vision, analysts believe, could unlock massive growth potential for compliant, U.S.-based platforms like Coinbase. As regulatory clarity becomes a political talking point, institutions and investors are reassessing the long-term prospects of digital asset infrastructure providers operating within American jurisdiction.
👉 Discover how political shifts could reshape the future of crypto investing.
Why Coinbase Is Poised for Growth
At the heart of Bernstein’s bullish thesis is the idea that market sentiment has underestimated the scale of opportunity created by a pro-crypto regulatory environment. Analyst Gautam Chhugani argues that while short sellers focus on rising competition and fee compression, they’re missing a far larger trend: the repatriation of global crypto activity back to the U.S..
This shift would significantly expand Coinbase’s total addressable market (TAM)—a critical metric for long-term valuation. With over $400 billion in assets and approximately 10 million active users, Coinbase remains the dominant player in the U.S. market, holding an estimated 66% share of domestic trading volume.
Chhugani projects that Coinbase’s earnings per share (EPS), adjusted for the fair value gains of crypto holdings, will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 38%. This forecast substantially outpaces current consensus estimates—surpassing 2025 EPS expectations by 30% and 2026 projections by 61%.
Such optimism is rooted not just in macro trends but also in the company’s evolving business model. Beyond its core trading platform, Coinbase is rapidly diversifying into areas like staking, lending, and institutional services—segments that generate non-trading revenue and help stabilize performance during volatile market cycles.
The Impact of Regulatory Clarity
One of the biggest hurdles facing the crypto industry has been regulatory uncertainty. For years, U.S. agencies applied inconsistent frameworks, creating confusion for businesses and investors alike. But recent political rhetoric suggests a turning point may be near.
Donald Trump, once skeptical of digital currencies, has pivoted to embrace them—promising to make America a global leader in blockchain innovation. His campaign statements emphasize supporting pro-innovation policies, protecting American leadership in emerging technologies, and attracting crypto entrepreneurs who have fled stricter regimes abroad.
While policy details remain under discussion, even the suggestion of favorable regulation can move markets. For compliant exchanges like Coinbase—which have invested heavily in legal infrastructure and know-your-customer (KYC) protocols—the benefits are clear.
A supportive regulatory backdrop could:
- Attract institutional capital seeking safe on-ramps
- Encourage global traders to shift operations back to U.S.-regulated platforms
- Accelerate product innovation through clearer compliance pathways
This environment favors established players over smaller or offshore competitors who lack transparency or regulatory alignment.
Diversified Revenue Streams Strengthen Outlook
Beyond political tailwinds, Bernstein highlights Coinbase’s strategic progress in expanding beyond transaction-based income. Historically, crypto exchanges relied heavily on trading fees—a revenue stream highly sensitive to market volatility.
However, Coinbase has made significant strides in developing recurring, high-margin revenue streams, including:
- Staking services: Allowing users to earn yield on proof-of-stake assets like Ethereum
- Institutional custody and prime brokerage: Catering to hedge funds and asset managers
- Blockchain node infrastructure: Providing developers with API access to multiple chains
- Web3 wallet integration and developer tools: Positioning itself as a gateway to decentralized applications
Chhugani forecasts that non-trading revenue will grow at a CAGR of approximately 31% between 2024 and 2026, acting as a stabilizing force against cyclical downturns in trading volume.
This diversification reduces reliance on bull markets alone and enhances long-term profitability—even during periods of lower crypto volatility.
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Addressing Investor Concerns
Despite the positive outlook, skepticism remains. Critics point to increasing competition from decentralized exchanges (DEXs), margin pressure from zero-fee models, and regulatory risks that could resurface unexpectedly.
However, Bernstein counters that these concerns overlook structural advantages held by centralized exchanges in regulated markets:
- Security and trust: Retail investors prefer platforms with insurance, audit trails, and customer support.
- User experience: Coinbase offers seamless onboarding compared to complex DeFi interfaces.
- Compliance readiness: It can quickly adapt to new rules—a necessity in a maturing industry.
Moreover, while DEXs offer censorship resistance, they lack the scalability and fiat integration needed for mass adoption. For mainstream users wanting to convert dollars into crypto—and vice versa—regulated gateways like Coinbase remain indispensable.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why is Coinbase considered a beneficiary of U.S. crypto policy changes?
A: As a compliant, U.S.-based exchange, Coinbase benefits from clearer regulations and government support for domestic crypto innovation—especially if policies aim to attract global capital back to American platforms.
Q: How does political support affect cryptocurrency markets?
A: Pro-crypto stances from major political figures reduce regulatory uncertainty, boost investor confidence, and encourage institutional participation—key drivers for market expansion and platform growth.
Q: What makes Coinbase different from decentralized exchanges?
A: Coinbase offers superior security, regulatory compliance, fiat on-ramps, and user-friendly design—making it more accessible to retail and institutional users compared to complex DeFi platforms.
Q: Is Coinbase’s revenue dependent only on trading activity?
A: No. While trading fees are important, Coinbase is growing its non-trading revenue through staking, institutional services, cloud infrastructure, and Web3 tools—diversifying its income sources.
Q: Can Coinbase maintain its market dominance amid rising competition?
A: Yes. Its brand recognition, regulatory preparedness, scale, and product ecosystem create strong moats that are difficult for new entrants or offshore platforms to replicate.
Q: What role does total addressable market (TAM) play in Coinbase’s growth story?
A: A pro-innovation U.S. policy could bring global crypto activity back onshore—dramatically expanding TAM for compliant exchanges like Coinbase and enabling multi-year growth trajectories.
Long-Term Outlook: Building the Financial Infrastructure of Tomorrow
Coinbase isn’t just a crypto exchange—it’s evolving into a foundational layer of the next-generation financial system. From enabling everyday users to buy Bitcoin to providing developers with blockchain development kits, its ecosystem spans both consumer and enterprise needs.
With strong leadership in the U.S. market, a clear path toward revenue diversification, and powerful macro tailwinds from shifting political tides, Coinbase appears well-positioned for sustained growth—even beyond the next bull cycle.
As governments worldwide grapple with how to regulate digital assets, those that embrace innovation stand to lead. And if Trump’s vision of making America the crypto capital of the world comes to pass, few companies are better placed to capitalize than Coinbase.