Bitcoin has long been associated with a predictable rhythm—its famous four-year cycle driven by halving events. These events, occurring roughly every four years, cut the block reward for miners in half, reducing the rate at which new bitcoins enter circulation. Historically, each halving has preceded a significant surge in Bitcoin price, reinforcing a bullish narrative that has shaped investor expectations for over a decade.
But as we approach the one-year mark since the April 2024 halving, a growing number of analysts are questioning whether this historic pattern still holds. With only about 5.5% of Bitcoin’s total supply left to mine and macroeconomic forces gaining influence, could we be witnessing the end of the traditional cycle? And if so, what does this mean for Bitcoin’s price in the coming years?
Let’s explore how Bitcoin’s market dynamics are shifting and what it could mean for the future of this groundbreaking digital asset.
The 4-Year Cycle: A Historical Overview of Bitcoin’s Price Surges
Halving events have played a central role in Bitcoin’s price history. By design, Bitcoin’s protocol reduces miner rewards every 210,000 blocks—approximately every four years. This built-in scarcity mechanism mimics precious metals like gold and has historically triggered supply shocks that fuel demand.
- 2012 Halving (50 → 25 BTC/block): Followed by a massive rally peaking in 2013, with Bitcoin rising from under $10 to over $1,000.
- 2016 Halving (25 → 12.5 BTC/block): Preceded the legendary 2017 bull run, where Bitcoin surged past $19,000.
- 2020 Halving (12.5 → 6.25 BTC/block): Led to a recovery from the March 2020 crash and an all-time high above $69,000 in late 2021.
Each cycle followed a similar trajectory: consolidation after the halving, followed by explosive growth within 12–18 months. This consistency cemented the "buy after halving" strategy in crypto culture.
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One Year After the 2024 Halving: A More Measured Response
The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, reducing block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. Unlike previous cycles, however, the post-halving price action has been notably subdued.
As of early 2025, Bitcoin’s price has increased by approximately 40%—a positive return, but far below the triple- or quadruple-digit gains seen after prior halvings. There was no immediate parabolic surge, and volatility has remained relatively contained.
This doesn’t necessarily signal failure. Many experts still expect a larger rally in late 2025 or early 2026, aligning with the typical lag between halving and peak prices. However, the muted response suggests that other factors—beyond simple supply reduction—are now playing a greater role in shaping market behavior.
Hashrate and Miner Metrics: Signs of Network Strength
Despite softer price action, key on-chain indicators remain strong. Bitcoin’s hashrate—a measure of network security and miner participation—has surged nearly 50% since the 2024 halving. This growth indicates continued confidence among miners, even with reduced block rewards.
Another important metric is the Puell Multiple, which compares miner revenue to historical averages. It dipped sharply post-halving as revenues fell, but has since rebounded—a sign that miner economics are stabilizing and that selling pressure from miners is easing.
These fundamentals suggest that while short-term price momentum may be delayed, the underlying health of the Bitcoin network remains robust.
Is the 4-Year Cycle Ending?
Here’s where things get interesting: Bitcoin is running out of new supply.
As of 2025, over 94.5% of the total 21 million bitcoins have already been mined. By the time of the next halving in 2028, that number will reach nearly 97%. After that, only about 225 new BTC will be created daily—less than 0.1% of current daily trading volumes on major exchanges.
With such minimal new supply entering the market, the impact of halvings on scarcity will naturally diminish. In other words, the mechanism that once drove explosive price increases is losing its potency.
This raises a critical question: If halvings no longer create meaningful supply shocks, what will drive Bitcoin’s price?
The Rise of Macroeconomic Drivers
Increasingly, Bitcoin is behaving less like an isolated tech asset and more like a global financial instrument influenced by macro trends.
Notably, Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional markets—especially the S&P 500—has strengthened in recent years. This shift became pronounced after the 2020 pandemic stimulus wave, when central banks flooded markets with liquidity, boosting both equities and cryptocurrencies.
Today, institutional adoption is accelerating. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., growing treasury allocations by public companies, and increasing use of Bitcoin as collateral in decentralized finance all point to deeper integration into mainstream finance.
As a result, Bitcoin’s price is likely to follow global liquidity cycles, interest rate policies, inflation expectations, and risk sentiment—just like gold or tech stocks.
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What Happens After the 2028 Halving?
The 2028 halving—reducing block rewards to just 1.5625 BTC per block—could mark a symbolic turning point.
At that stage:
- Annual BTC issuance will fall below 300,000 coins.
- Daily inflows will represent a negligible fraction of trading volume.
- Miners will rely more on transaction fees than block subsidies.
This transition could signal the end of halving-driven bull markets. Instead of explosive post-halving rallies, we may see more gradual, fundamentals-driven price appreciation, influenced by:
- Global monetary policy
- Geopolitical risk
- Institutional capital flows
- Regulatory developments
In this new era, Bitcoin may evolve into a digital reserve asset, valued not for its cyclical scarcity events but for its long-term store-of-value properties.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Has the Bitcoin halving cycle already ended?
A: Not completely—but its influence is weakening. While past cycles reliably led to bull runs, future price movements will likely depend more on macroeconomic conditions than halving events alone.
Q: Why was the post-2024 halving rally weaker than expected?
A: Several factors contributed: high pre-halving market anticipation, slower-than-expected ETF inflows, and tighter global monetary policy limiting risk appetite.
Q: Will Bitcoin still go up after 2025?
A: Many analysts expect further gains in late 2025 or 2026. However, these increases may be driven more by macro tailwinds than halving mechanics.
Q: How does institutional adoption affect Bitcoin’s price?
A: Institutions bring sustained demand and reduce volatility over time. Their involvement ties Bitcoin more closely to traditional financial cycles and investor behavior.
Q: Can Bitcoin decouple from the stock market?
A: It may during times of crisis (e.g., banking instability), but under normal conditions, correlations with risk assets like the S&P 500 are likely to persist.
Q: What replaces the halving cycle?
A: A combination of liquidity cycles, adoption trends, and macroeconomic drivers will likely shape Bitcoin’s future price trajectory.
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Final Thoughts: A New Chapter for Bitcoin
The era of predictable, halving-driven bull markets may be coming to an end—not because Bitcoin is failing, but because it’s maturing.
As issuance dwindles and institutional adoption grows, Bitcoin is transitioning from a speculative tech experiment to a globally recognized asset class. Its price will increasingly reflect broader economic realities rather than algorithmic supply constraints.
This evolution doesn’t diminish Bitcoin’s potential—it redefines it. Rather than relying on four-year cycles for explosive returns, investors may soon need to evaluate Bitcoin through the lens of macroeconomics, geopolitics, and long-term financial resilience.
In less than three years, we may look back at the post-2024 period not as the beginning of another cycle—but as the dawn of a new financial paradigm.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.