The XRP price has rebounded 8% from its recent low of $2.26 recorded on February 7, with a 2% gain over the past 24 hours. Amid growing market optimism, traders are closely watching for signs of a sustained bullish reversal. A key catalyst driving sentiment is the intensifying speculation around the potential approval of a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States. This regulatory development, combined with compelling technical analysis, has reignited investor interest and set the stage for a possible surge toward $8.
XRP Technical Analysis: Fibonacci Levels Signal Bullish Potential
Crypto analyst CoinsKid has identified a complex expanded flat correction pattern in XRP’s price action since December 2024. According to this Elliott Wave-based interpretation, the asset may be nearing the final phase of a broader corrective structure, setting up for a powerful upward move.
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The analyst notes that XRP is approaching what could be the fifth and final leg of the third wave, targeting the 2.618 Fibonacci extension level. While this phase may trigger a short-term bearish correction, it could also serve as a springboard for a larger bullish impulse.
Historical price movements from January 2023’s lows to the July 2024 rally provide context for this projection. The current market structure suggests that after completing Wave 4 correction, XRP could enter Wave 5—a parabolic surge potentially driving the price to $8 at the 1.272 Fibonacci retracement level.
CoinsKid emphasizes that while timing remains uncertain, the structural setup supports a significant upside move:
“How long the Wave 4 correction plays out is a guessing game, but I do think we could see a bigger macro Wave 5 up to the 1.272 Fibonacci retracement level at $8 eventually.”
However, caution prevails. The analyst warns that XRP is now entering a “maximum risk zone,” where a reversal downward cannot be ruled out. Key downside support levels include the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $0.388 and the 1.618 extension at $0.82. A breakdown below critical support could invalidate the bullish thesis and lead to deeper corrections.
ETF Approval Hopes Fuel Market Momentum
Beyond technicals, fundamental catalysts are bolstering XRP’s upward trajectory. The most significant development is the rising probability of a spot XRP ETF being approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
FOX Business journalist Eleanor Terrett highlighted recent insights from Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, who project that the SEC could formally acknowledge Grayscale’s 19b-4 filing for an XRP ETF as early as February 13, 2025. Given that Grayscale submitted its application on January 30 and the SEC typically takes up to 15 days to respond, this timeline aligns with historical processing patterns.
Terrett noted:
“Either way, it should give us a good idea of how the current @SECGov commission is thinking about $XRP.”
Balchunas and Seyffart have assessed several pending ETF applications and ranked Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), XRP, and Dogecoin (DOGE) as having the highest likelihood of approval. For XRP specifically, they estimate a 65% chance of regulatory greenlight—making it one of the most probable candidates in the pipeline.
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A pseudonymous crypto analyst known as Easy echoed this sentiment in a February 13 post on X (formerly Twitter), stating:
“An XRP ETF could be approved as soon as Q2 2025 now that filings are in… With no SEC roadblocks left, the path is clear.”
Multiple asset management firms—including Grayscale and Cboe BZX—have filed proposals for XRP-linked ETFs. These submissions signal growing institutional confidence and pave the way for broader adoption.
Why an XRP ETF Matters
An approved spot ETF would represent a transformative milestone for XRP. Unlike futures-based funds, spot ETFs hold the actual underlying asset, offering investors direct exposure without managing private keys or exchanges. This structure appeals to traditional financial institutions and retail investors alike.
Key benefits include:
- Enhanced liquidity: ETFs attract large-scale capital inflows from pension funds, hedge funds, and retail platforms.
- Regulatory legitimacy: SEC approval signals compliance and reduces legal uncertainty.
- Market visibility: ETF listings often trigger media coverage and public awareness campaigns.
- Price stability: Institutional participation tends to reduce volatility over time.
If approved, an XRP ETF could unlock billions in institutional capital, significantly increasing demand for the token. Ripple Labs’ ongoing efforts to expand XRP’s utility in cross-border payments and central bank digital currency (CBDC) projects further strengthen its long-term value proposition.
Core Keywords Driving Market Interest
This analysis revolves around several high-intent keywords that reflect current search trends and investor curiosity:
- XRP price prediction
- XRP ETF approval
- Ripple SEC lawsuit update
- XRP technical analysis
- Fibonacci levels in crypto
- Grayscale XRP ETF
- XRP price target $8
- spot XRP ETF
These terms naturally align with user queries seeking actionable insights into XRP’s future performance and regulatory outlook.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the significance of a spot XRP ETF?
A: A spot ETF allows investors to gain exposure to XRP’s real-time price without owning or storing the cryptocurrency directly. It brings institutional-grade accessibility and could dramatically increase trading volume and market stability.
Q: How likely is an XRP ETF approval in 2025?
A: According to Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, the chances stand at approximately 65%. With multiple filings already under review and no major legal barriers remaining, Q2 2025 emerges as a plausible approval window.
Q: What does the $8 price target mean for XRP investors?
A: Reaching $8 would represent a substantial return from current levels and validate long-term bullish momentum. It aligns with advanced technical models based on Fibonacci extensions and Elliott Wave theory.
Q: Could regulatory setbacks delay the ETF process?
A: While possible, recent regulatory trends suggest increasing openness to crypto-based financial products. The SEC’s handling of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs sets a precedent that may benefit XRP if it’s classified as a non-security.
Q: Is XRP still involved in litigation with the SEC?
A: The core legal battle between Ripple and the SEC has largely concluded, with courts ruling that XRP sales to retail investors do not constitute unregistered securities offerings. This distinction strengthens the case for ETF approval.
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Final Outlook: A Pivotal Moment for XRP
As technical indicators point toward a potential breakout and regulatory momentum builds behind ETF applications, XRP stands at a critical juncture. The convergence of favorable market structure, institutional interest, and improving legal clarity creates a compelling narrative for sustained growth.
While risks remain—particularly around short-term volatility and regulatory unpredictability—the overall trajectory appears increasingly bullish. With analysts projecting a path toward $8 and ETF approval odds favoring a greenlight in 2025, investors are watching closely.
For those tracking digital asset trends, XRP’s journey offers valuable insights into how regulation, technology, and market psychology interact to shape investment outcomes in the evolving crypto economy.