Chainlink Price Forecast: On-Chain Data Signals Overhead Pressure

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Chainlink (LINK) began the week on a bearish note, shedding over 2% in early Monday trading and reversing weekend gains. Despite a strong 17% rally over the previous week, momentum has stalled as on-chain metrics reveal growing supply pressure at key resistance levels. With technical indicators pointing to a potential pullback and derivatives markets showing mixed signals, LINK appears to be at a critical inflection point.

This analysis dives deep into Chainlink’s current price dynamics, combining on-chain data, derivatives trends, and technical structure to assess the short-term outlook. Whether you're monitoring accumulation zones or evaluating resistance strength, understanding these layers is essential for navigating the current market phase.

On-Chain Data Reveals Strong Supply Resistance

One of the most telling indicators of Chainlink’s current price ceiling comes from on-chain analytics, particularly IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) metric. This tool identifies price levels where large numbers of investors are either in profit (“in-the-money”) or at breakeven (“at-the-money”), offering insight into potential support and resistance zones.

At present, LINK is trading within the “at-the-money” range of $13.06 to $14.06, where approximately 50,000 investors hold 105.38 million LINK tokens acquired at an average price of $13.57. This creates a dense pocket of breakeven holders who may be inclined to sell as prices approach breakeven, especially after recent volatility.

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Just above this zone, an immediate supply wall exists between $14.06 and $14.29, representing 19.83 million LINK tokens held by 13,720 investors. Historically, such concentrated supply areas act as strong resistance—especially when price fails to sustain momentum through them. With LINK currently retreating toward the lower end of the “at-the-money” band, the path of least resistance appears tilted downward.

However, there is a buffer below. The nearest “in-the-money” zone spans from $12.74 to $13.06, where 13,940 investors hold 11.38 million LINK tokens. If selling pressure intensifies, this cohort—already in profit—could absorb some of the incoming supply, potentially slowing or halting a deeper correction.

Derivatives Market Shows Bullish Sentiment Despite Price Weakness

While spot and on-chain data suggest caution, the derivatives market paints a more optimistic picture. According to Coinglass, Open Interest (OI) in Chainlink futures surged by 3.84% on Monday, reaching $559.76 million. A rising OI typically indicates new positions being opened, often signaling increased market participation and bullish conviction.

Further reinforcing this sentiment is the OI-weighted funding rate, which spiked from 0.0004% on Sunday to 0.0086%—a sharp increase suggesting longs are paying premiums to maintain leveraged positions. In perpetual swap markets, positive funding rates reflect dominant buying pressure, as longs compensate shorts to balance order flow imbalances.

This divergence—bearish on-chain pressure versus bullish derivatives activity—creates a tug-of-war scenario. The market is essentially split: long-term holders may be hesitant to buy at current levels, while short-term traders are aggressively positioning for upside.

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Technical Outlook: LINK at a Crossroads

On the 4-hour chart, Chainlink’s price action reflects indecision. After briefly reclaiming momentum over the weekend, LINK has once again fallen below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a key trend filter. This retests the strength of the prior recovery and raises concerns about sustainability.

The 50-period and 100-period EMAs are converging and nearing a potential bullish crossover—a setup that could support further upside if momentum returns. However, for that scenario to unfold, LINK must first break above a critical resistance trendline drawn from swing highs on May 12, May 23, and June 11.

A sustained close above this trendline—currently near the monthly high of $14.17**—would confirm renewed bullish control and open the door toward the next resistance at **$15.02, last tested on June 10.

Conversely, failure to hold above the 50-period EMA at $13.12** could trigger a deeper correction toward **$12.63, a support level previously tested on June 18. This level aligns with the lower boundary of the “in-the-money” zone, making it a logical area for consolidation or reversal.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) adds context: currently at 52, it’s trending downward after retreating from near-overbought conditions. This suggests that buying pressure has weakened rapidly, even after recent gains.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: What is causing Chainlink’s price to drop despite recent gains?
A: Chainlink is facing overhead supply pressure from investors who bought near $13.57, creating resistance as price approaches breakeven levels. On-chain data shows strong sell-side interest in this zone, contributing to the pullback.

Q: Is rising Open Interest bullish for LINK?
A: Yes—increasing Open Interest signals new positions are being opened, often reflecting growing market confidence. When paired with rising funding rates, it suggests strong short-term bullish sentiment in derivatives.

Q: What are the key support and resistance levels for LINK right now?
A: Immediate support sits at $12.63, with stronger demand expected between $12.74–$13.06. Resistance begins at $14.06–$14.29 (supply zone), followed by $14.17 (trendline) and $15.02.

Q: Can Chainlink reclaim bullish momentum?
A: Yes—but only if it sustains a close above $14.17 and the key resistance trendline. A confirmed breakout could trigger short squeezes and renewed accumulation.

Q: How reliable is on-chain data for predicting price moves?
A: On-chain metrics like GIOM offer high-value insights into investor behavior and break-even concentrations. While not foolproof, they complement technical analysis by revealing structural supply and demand zones.

Core Keywords

With mixed signals across markets, Chainlink remains in a pivotal phase. Traders should monitor both on-chain accumulation patterns and derivatives flows to gauge whether the current dip is a pause before a breakout—or the start of a deeper correction.

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