Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High: Are Long-Term Holders Cashing Out?

·

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $100,000 mark, setting a new all-time high and reigniting investor confidence after a period of volatility. With this surge comes a critical question on every market watcher’s mind: Are the most experienced and successful Bitcoin holders—long-term investors—beginning to exit their positions?

This article dives into on-chain data to uncover the behavior of long-term holders, examining whether recent profit-taking signals a potential market top or simply reflects healthy dynamics within the current bull cycle.

Signs of Profit-Taking Emerge

One of the most immediate indicators of realized profit across the network is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). Over recent weeks, SOPR data reveals a clear uptick in profit realization. Clusters of green bars indicate that a significant number of investors have sold Bitcoin to lock in gains—particularly as price climbed from the $74,000–$75,000 range to surpass $100,000.

While this may raise short-term concerns about resistance levels ahead, it's essential to interpret this trend within the broader on-chain context. Profit-taking of this nature is not unusual during bull markets and, on its own, does not signal the end of a cycle.

👉 Discover how real-time on-chain metrics can guide your investment strategy.

Long-Term Holder Supply Continues to Rise

The Long-Term Holder (LTH) Supply metric tracks the total amount of Bitcoin held in wallets that have not moved coins in over 155 days. Despite the price surge, this metric continues to climb—a strong signal of market health.

This growth doesn't necessarily reflect new buying activity. Instead, it shows that existing holdings are aging into long-term status as coins remain unspent and undisturbed.

In other words, many investors who bought in late 2024 or early 2025 are still holding firm, transitioning into the long-term holder category. This kind of behavior is typical during the early to mid-stages of a bull market and suggests we’re far from a widespread distribution phase.

HODL Waves Reveal Investor Sentiment

To gain deeper insight, we turn to HODL Waves, which segments Bitcoin supply by wallet age. Focusing on wallets holding coins for six months or longer, we find that over 70% of Bitcoin’s total supply is now controlled by medium- to long-term investors.

Interestingly, while this percentage remains historically high, it has begun to dip slightly—hinting that some long-term holders may be selling. However, the primary driver behind the continued growth in long-term supply appears to be short-term holders aging into the 155+ day cohort, rather than massive new inflows of capital.

Historically, sharp declines in the rate of change of long-term holder balances have coincided with market tops. Conversely, rapid increases often mark accumulation phases and market bottoms.

Refining Signals with Age Distribution Ratios

To enhance the precision of these insights, analysts often compare new entrants (0–1 month holdings) against intermediate-to-long-term holders (1–5 years). This age distribution ratio offers real-time visibility into distribution trends.

Data shows that when the proportion of 1–5 year holders drops sharply relative to new buyers, it has frequently aligned with price peaks in past cycles. On the flip side, when this ratio rises—indicating more coins are flowing into experienced hands—it has often preceded major price rallies.

👉 See how age-layered supply analysis can improve your market timing.

Why Long-Term Holder Behavior Matters

The actions of long-term investors are among the most reliable indicators of market sentiment and sustainability. Historical patterns consistently show that HODLers—who buy during periods of fear and hold through volatility—outperform short-term traders over time.

By analyzing Bitcoin’s age distribution structure, we can identify accumulation and distribution phases without relying solely on price action or emotional market narratives. This data-driven approach allows for more accurate predictions of potential market inflection points.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What defines a long-term holder in Bitcoin?
A: A long-term holder is typically defined as an address that has not moved its Bitcoin for more than 155 days. This threshold helps distinguish speculative activity from strategic, long-term conviction.

Q: Does profit-taking always lead to a price drop?
A: Not necessarily. Moderate profit-taking during a bull run is normal and healthy. It only becomes concerning when it coincides with large-scale selling from long-term holders and declining on-chain fundamentals.

Q: How can I track SOPR and HODL Waves data?
A: These metrics are publicly available through blockchain analytics platforms like Glassnode and Bitcoin Magazine Pro. They provide real-time dashboards for monitoring investor behavior.

Q: Is Bitcoin still in a bull market if long-term holders are selling?
A: Yes—especially if the selling is limited and balanced by new accumulation. The key is whether the overall supply held by long-term investors continues to grow, which it currently is.

Q: What percentage of Bitcoin is considered "lost" or inactive?
A: Estimates suggest between 3–4 million BTC may be permanently lost due to forgotten keys or discarded hardware. This scarcity further strengthens the asset's long-term value proposition.

👉 Access advanced on-chain analytics tools to monitor key Bitcoin metrics in real time.

Conclusion

Current data suggests only mild distribution from long-term holders—nowhere near the scale seen at previous market tops. While some profit-taking is evident, the pace remains measured and consistent with healthy market dynamics.

Given the current stage of the bull cycle and ongoing participation from both institutional and retail investors, on-chain indicators point to a structurally strong market. With fresh capital continuing to flow in, there remains significant room for further price appreciation.

For those watching closely, the message is clear: the conviction behind Bitcoin remains strong, and the core holder base continues to grow—not shrink. As history has shown, the most profitable strategy often remains simple: accumulate during uncertainty, hold through volatility, and let time do the work.

Core Keywords: