Ethereum price recently climbed 1.1% over the past 24 hours, trading at $1,831.35 despite a broader crypto market correction that shaved 1.9% off the total market capitalization—now sitting at $3.09 trillion. While bulls and bears battle for control near pivotal levels, a powerful on-chain metric suggests Ethereum may be historically undervalued, sparking renewed optimism among long-term investors.
With technical resistance looming and macro sentiment in flux, Ethereum stands at a critical juncture. Can it break through key price barriers and ignite a new rally? Or will short-term headwinds delay its ascent? Let’s explore the data, chart patterns, and upcoming catalysts shaping ETH’s trajectory.
MVRV Z-Score Suggests Ethereum Is Historically Undervalued
One of the most reliable on-chain indicators for assessing asset valuation, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-Score, is flashing a compelling signal: Ethereum is currently undervalued.
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The MVRV Z-Score compares Ethereum’s current market value to its realized value—the average price at which all existing ETH units were last moved. When the Z-Score falls below zero (entering the green zone), it typically indicates that ETH is trading below fair value, often marking strong accumulation zones.
Historically, dips into this undervaluation range have preceded massive price surges:
- August 2016: ETH price near $10 → surged over 10x within a year.
- February 2017: Another sub-zero Z-Score → led to the 2017 bull run peak.
- August 2020: ETH around $200 → rocketed to over $4,000 by mid-2021.
More recently, in February 2025, the MVRV Z-Score dipped into the red zone, hovering near -1.5, with Ethereum priced around $1,500. This mirrors past bottom formations seen in early 2019 ($100) and early 2020 ($200), both of which were followed by explosive rallies.
Conversely, when the Z-Score spikes above 7 (pink zone), it signals overvaluation—such as during the peaks of February 2018 (~$1,400) and February 2021 (~$4,800)—often warning of impending corrections.
Given today’s reading, analysts interpret this as a potential "buy the dip" signal. If history repeats, Ethereum could be forming a foundational base for the next major upswing.
Technical Outlook: Breaking $1,922 Is Crucial for Bullish Momentum
Despite the bullish undercurrents suggested by on-chain data, technical resistance remains a key hurdle. On the daily chart, Ethereum has repeatedly tested two critical resistance levels: $1,829.87** and **$1,922.
To confirm a sustainable bullish reversal, ETH must decisively close above $1,922. Failure to do so could prolong consolidation or trigger another pullback toward support zones at **$1,767, $1,573.72**, or even **$1,453**.
However, there are encouraging signs:
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 57.68 and trending upward—indicating growing buying pressure without entering overbought territory.
- The Choppiness Index (CHOP) has fallen to 46.95, suggesting the market is transitioning from sideways movement to a clearer directional trend.
A breakout above $1,829 could open the path toward **$2,315**, with further upside potential if momentum accelerates. Traders are watching volume patterns closely; a high-volume surge past resistance would add credibility to any rally.
Upcoming Catalysts: Pectra Upgrade and Staking Demand
While technicals and valuations set the stage, real-world developments often provide the spark. Two key catalysts could propel Ethereum in the coming weeks:
1. The Pectra Upgrade (Expected May 2025)
Scheduled for mid-2025, the Pectra upgrade aims to enhance scalability, improve wallet usability via account abstraction, and streamline staking mechanics. These upgrades could attract institutional interest and increase network efficiency—both bullish for long-term adoption.
2. Growing Staking Participation
Over 30% of circulating ETH is now staked, with average annual yields hovering around 3.5–5%. As staking rewards remain attractive and withdrawal flexibility improves post-Dencun, more holders are opting to lock up their assets—reducing liquid supply and increasing scarcity pressure.
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This combination of technological progress and economic tightening strengthens Ethereum’s fundamentals—a recipe often associated with strong market performance following periods of undervaluation.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is the MVRV Z-Score and why does it matter for Ethereum?
The MVRV Z-Score measures how far Ethereum’s market price deviates from its realized value, normalized by historical volatility. A negative score suggests undervaluation and potential buying opportunities, while high positive values indicate overvaluation risks.
Is Ethereum a good buy right now based on on-chain data?
Many analysts believe so. With the MVRV Z-Score in deeply negative territory—similar to past cycle lows—and rising network activity, current conditions resemble previous accumulation phases that preceded major rallies.
What price must Ethereum reach to confirm a bullish breakout?
A sustained move above $1,922 is required to validate bullish momentum. Until then, the market remains in a consolidation phase with risk of further sideways or downward movement.
How could the Pectra upgrade impact ETH’s price?
By improving scalability, security, and user experience—especially through account abstraction—the Pectra upgrade may boost developer activity, institutional adoption, and retail participation, all of which can drive demand.
Does staking affect Ethereum’s price?
Yes. As more ETH is locked in staking contracts, circulating supply decreases, creating deflationary pressure. Combined with steady or rising demand, this scarcity effect can support higher prices over time.
Can Ethereum outperform Bitcoin in the next bull cycle?
It’s possible. While Bitcoin often leads early-cycle moves, Ethereum tends to outperform in mid-to-late stages due to DeFi, NFTs, and smart contract ecosystem growth. If network upgrades accelerate adoption, ETH could see disproportionate gains.
Final Thoughts: Ethereum at a Crossroads
Ethereum sits at a pivotal moment. On-chain metrics like the MVRV Z-Score suggest deep undervaluation—a pattern that has historically preceded explosive rallies. Technical indicators show building momentum, but a decisive break above $1,922 is needed to confirm bullish control.
With the Pectra upgrade on the horizon and staking demand reinforcing scarcity dynamics, Ethereum’s fundamental outlook remains strong. However, broader market sentiment—especially Bitcoin’s direction—will play a crucial role in determining near-term price action.
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For investors focused on long-term value rather than short-term noise, current conditions may represent one of the most strategic entry points in recent years—mirroring past cycles where patience was richly rewarded.
As always, conduct thorough research and consider risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. But one thing is clear: Ethereum’s story is far from over—and its next chapter could be its most transformative yet.