Bitcoin’s latest price correction has sparked renewed debate over the health of its current bull cycle, with renowned quant analyst PlanB suggesting the market is now at a pivotal crossroads. While on-chain data continues to signal bullish momentum, the absence of new all-time highs since January 2025 has raised concerns about a potential shift in market sentiment.
PlanB, best known for creating the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model that links Bitcoin’s price to its scarcity, recently shared fresh insights on the evolving market dynamics. His analysis highlights a critical juncture: either Bitcoin will rebound strongly and extend its bull run, or it may be entering a distribution phase that precedes a bear market.
On-Chain Data Still Points to Bull Market
Despite recent price turbulence, PlanB emphasizes that key on-chain metrics continue to reflect a bull market structure. These include long-term holder accumulation, stable network security, and consistent transaction volumes—all indicators that underlying demand remains robust.
“Some questions about the Bitcoin market cycle chart. It is still measuring ‘bull market’ (red) in on-chain data. But as I explain in today’s video, we are at a crossroads.”
This divergence between technical behavior and on-chain fundamentals underscores the complexity of interpreting Bitcoin’s current phase. Historically, deep corrections—some exceeding 30%—have occurred within ongoing bull runs, particularly following halving events.
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A Missed Expectation: No New All-Time Highs Since January
One of the most notable deviations from typical bull market behavior is the failure to achieve new highs after January 2025. PlanB had projected continued momentum, expecting prices to surpass $102,000 by February. That forecast has so far gone unmet, prompting reassessment.
“In bull markets, we can have multiple dips that are 20% or even 30% minus. However, it was still an unexpected dip. I expected more all-time highs after January’s all-time high and I expected February to be an all-time high as well, above $102,000. So we’re really at the crossroads right now.”
This pause raises a fundamental question: Is this a healthy consolidation before another leg up, or the beginning of a broader reversal?
Two Possible Paths Ahead
PlanB outlines two plausible scenarios emerging from this inflection point:
1. V-Shaped Recovery and Extended Bull Run
In this optimistic scenario, Bitcoin rebounds sharply from current levels—around $84,377 at time of writing—and resumes its upward trajectory. Such recoveries are not uncommon in previous cycles, especially when macroeconomic conditions remain favorable and institutional inflows continue.
Historical patterns suggest that post-halving rallies often experience mid-cycle corrections before accelerating toward cycle peaks. If this pattern holds, the current dip could present a strategic entry point for investors.
2. Distribution Phase Leading to Bear Market
Alternatively, the market may be transitioning into a distribution phase, where early adopters and large holders begin offloading positions accumulated during earlier stages of the rally. This phase typically precedes a bear market characterized by declining prices, reduced volatility, and waning public interest.
Signs of distribution include rising exchange inflows, declining realized profit margins, and weakening retail participation—all of which warrant close monitoring.
“Either we’ll have a red hot bull market, a continuation of the bull market, or we enter the distribution phase into a bear phase. So what will it be? I don’t know. That’s a big question. Was this the top and is this the start of the bear market, or will we see a V-shape recovery and more bull market action?”
Historical Precedent Favors Bullish Outcome
Despite uncertainty, PlanB notes that in every prior halving cycle, the market ultimately chose the bullish path after similar crossroads moments.
“Yes, it has been at this crossroads each and every halving cycle. In all cycles the market has chosen bull/FOMO (fear of missing out) from here, but we have had only four cycles, not really enough to say something statistically sound. Fingers crossed for this fifth cycle.”
With only five halving cycles in Bitcoin’s history, statistical confidence remains limited. However, recurring behavioral patterns—such as fear-driven selling followed by FOMO-driven rallies—suggest that human psychology continues to play a dominant role in shaping price action.
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Core Keywords Driving This Analysis
Understanding Bitcoin’s current phase requires attention to several core keywords that define the narrative:
- Bitcoin bull market
- Market cycle
- On-chain data
- Price correction
- V-shaped recovery
- Bear market signals
- Halving cycle
- Distribution phase
These terms are not just jargon—they represent measurable phenomena that investors can track using transparent blockchain analytics and macroeconomic indicators.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What defines a Bitcoin bull market?
A: A Bitcoin bull market is typically characterized by sustained price increases, growing investor optimism, rising trading volumes, and strong on-chain activity such as increased wallet creation and transaction counts. It often follows a halving event and can last 12–18 months.
Q: How reliable is on-chain data in predicting market direction?
A: On-chain data provides objective insights into supply distribution, investor behavior, and network health. While not foolproof, metrics like MVRV ratio, exchange reserves, and hash rate trends have historically offered early warnings of trend reversals or continuations.
Q: What is a V-shaped recovery in crypto markets?
A: A V-shaped recovery refers to a sharp decline followed by an equally rapid rebound, forming a “V” on price charts. In Bitcoin’s history, such recoveries often occur after emotional sell-offs when fundamentals remain intact.
Q: Can Bitcoin enter a bear market without making new highs?
A: Yes. While new all-time highs are typical in bull phases, external factors like regulatory pressure, macroeconomic downturns, or geopolitical risks can cap upside momentum and trigger distribution even without fresh peaks.
Q: What role does the halving play in current market dynamics?
A: The halving reduces new Bitcoin supply by 50%, historically tightening scarcity and setting the stage for price appreciation over the following 12–24 months. The most recent halving occurred in early 2024, meaning its full impact may still be unfolding.
Q: How can investors navigate uncertainty during market crossroads?
A: Diversifying entry points, monitoring on-chain signals, maintaining risk discipline, and avoiding leverage are prudent strategies. Tools like dollar-cost averaging (DCA) help reduce timing risk during volatile periods.
Final Thoughts: Navigating Uncertainty with Data
Bitcoin’s journey through 2025 remains uncertain, but not unpredictable. As PlanB reminds us, every major cycle has faced moments of doubt—yet each time, the network has demonstrated resilience.
Whether this correction marks the end of the bull run or merely a pause before the next surge depends on how market participants respond in the coming weeks. For now, vigilance is key.
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By combining historical context with real-time data analysis, investors can make informed decisions rather than reacting emotionally to short-term volatility. The crossroads may be daunting—but it also presents opportunity for those prepared to act wisely.