The world of cryptocurrency continues to evolve, and XRP remains one of the most closely watched digital assets. Recently, veteran market technician Gert van Lagen has reignited investor interest with a bold price forecast: $38 for XRP. While that figure may seem ambitious, the reasoning behind it is rooted in solid technical analysis — particularly the formation of a rare, seven-year double bottom pattern.
This long-term structure could signal the beginning of a powerful bull run, provided key support levels hold. Let’s explore the technical foundations of this prediction, what it means for XRP’s future, and why many analysts believe we’re on the cusp of a major price movement.
Understanding the Double Bottom Pattern
A double bottom is a well-known reversal pattern in technical analysis that typically forms after a prolonged downtrend. It resembles the letter “W,” where the price drops to a low, rebounds, retests that same low, and then rallies strongly — indicating that selling pressure has been exhausted and buyers are regaining control.
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In XRP’s case, this pattern didn’t form over weeks or months — it took nearly seven years to complete across the 2-week chart. That kind of time horizon adds significant weight to its potential implications.
First Bottom: 2018–2020 Crash and Recovery
The first bottom began when XRP plummeted from its all-time high of $3.80** in January 2018, a peak driven by the broader crypto frenzy of that era. Over the next two years, as the market cooled and regulatory scrutiny increased, XRP steadily declined, eventually finding support at **$0.1140 in March 2020.
From there, a recovery began. Fueled by macroeconomic shifts, institutional interest, and improved market sentiment, XRP climbed to $1.96 by April 2021 — confirming the first leg of the reversal.
Second Bottom: Post-Terra Collapse Rebound
The second dip started after that 2021 high. As the broader crypto market corrected — accelerated by the collapse of Terra (LUNA) in May 2022 — XRP fell again, reaching a low of $0.2870 in June 2022. Though higher than the previous bottom, this level held as strong support.
XRP then began another ascent, breaking past key resistance zones and reclaiming the $2 mark by December 2024 — effectively completing the second bottom and forming a textbook double bottom structure.
The Neckline at $2: A Make-or-Break Level
The neckline of a double bottom is a critical resistance-turned-support level that connects the two peaks between the lows. In XRP’s case, this neckline sits around $2.
When XRP broke above $2 in late 2024, it triggered a bullish breakout, pushing the price up to **$3.40 by January 2025. However, it soon encountered strong resistance and retraced back toward $2 — entering what traders call a retest phase**.
Retesting the neckline is common and healthy in technical patterns. It validates whether the breakout was genuine or just a false move. If XRP can successfully defend $2 as support during this retest, it would confirm the strength of the double bottom — opening the door for a sustained upward move.
Why $38? The Analyst’s Rationale
Gert van Lagen’s **$38 price target** isn’t arbitrary. It’s based on measuring the vertical distance between the lowest point of the double bottom ($0.114) and the neckline ($2), then projecting that same distance upward from the breakout point.
Here’s a simplified breakdown:
- Depth of pattern: ~$1.886 ($2 – $0.114)
- Projected upside: $2 + $1.886 = ~$3.886 (minimum)
- But Van Lagen goes further by factoring in historical momentum and market cycles
He argues that **$38 is actually conservative**, especially when compared to XRP’s previous bull run following a similar pattern between 2013 and 2017. During that cycle, XRP surged over **50,000%** from its low — far outpacing what a $38 target would represent today.
Additionally, other analysts have echoed bullish sentiments:
- EGRAG projected a possible peak at $34
- Linda Jones highlighted XRP’s 4-year cycle trend, suggesting a move toward $33
These converging forecasts reinforce the idea that a major rally could be on the horizon — assuming structural integrity holds.
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Key Factors That Could Fuel an XRP Surge
While technical patterns provide valuable insight, they don’t operate in isolation. Several fundamental and market-driven factors could amplify XRP’s potential breakout:
- Regulatory clarity: Ongoing developments in the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit continue to shape investor confidence.
- Institutional adoption: Ripple’s partnerships with global financial institutions bolster real-world utility.
- Market cycle timing: With Bitcoin halving events influencing broader altcoin trends, 2025 may be ripe for altcoin rallies.
- Investor sentiment: Renewed optimism around digital assets has increased capital inflows into major cryptos like XRP.
Together, these elements create a favorable environment for XRP to not only maintain its technical structure but potentially exceed conservative price targets.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is a double bottom pattern?
A: A double bottom is a bullish reversal pattern shaped like a “W.” It forms when an asset reaches a low, bounces back, retests the low, and then rises again — signaling a shift from bearish to bullish momentum.
Q: Why is the $2 level so important for XRP?
A: The $2 mark represents the neckline of the double bottom. Holding this level during a retest confirms the validity of the breakout and increases the likelihood of further gains.
Q: Is the $38 price target realistic?
A: While aggressive, it's grounded in technical measurement and historical precedent. Whether it's reached depends on market conditions, volume, and broader crypto trends.
Q: How long might it take for XRP to reach $38?
A: Timing is uncertain. Given the seven-year formation of the pattern, such a move could unfold over multiple years, especially if supported by strong fundamentals.
Q: What happens if XRP breaks below $2?
A: A sustained drop below $2 would invalidate the double bottom pattern, likely leading to further downside pressure and undermining bullish projections.
Q: Are there risks to this analysis?
A: Yes. Technical analysis isn't foolproof. Black swan events, regulatory setbacks, or poor market conditions could disrupt even the strongest patterns.
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Final Thoughts
XRP’s journey over the past seven years has been anything but smooth — yet within that volatility lies one of the most compelling technical setups in crypto today. The completion of a seven-year double bottom, combined with strong historical precedent and growing analyst consensus, paints a promising picture for future price action.
While no prediction is guaranteed, Gert van Lagen’s $38 target** serves as both an ambitious benchmark and a reminder of XRP’s latent potential. For investors and traders alike, monitoring the **$2 neckline will be crucial in determining whether this long-gestating pattern delivers on its bullish promise.
As always, thorough research and risk management should guide any investment decision in the dynamic world of digital assets.
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