Bitcoin continues to capture the attention of investors and analysts alike as it navigates a dynamic phase in its price cycle. With current trading levels hovering around $106,952, many are asking: *Is this the right time to buy?* And more specifically, **will there be another chance to purchase Bitcoin below $120,000?** Based on recent insights from seasoned market analysts and long-term forecasting models, the answer may surprise you.
This article dives into the data-driven predictions shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory through 2025 and beyond, using proven analytical frameworks like logarithmic regression and historical halving cycles. We’ll explore key price ranges, optimal entry points, and the macroeconomic forces fueling renewed bullish momentum.
Understanding Logarithmic Regression and Bitcoin’s Growth Cycle
One of the most respected tools for long-term Bitcoin price forecasting is the logarithmic regression model, famously visualized in the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart. Analyst Leo Heart, known for his data-backed approach on X (formerly Twitter), has refined this model to project realistic growth paths post-halving.
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The model tracks Bitcoin’s price behavior following each block reward halving, which occurs approximately every four years. Historically, these events have preceded massive bull runs due to reduced supply inflation and increasing scarcity.
For example:
- After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin rose from about $14 to over $1,000 within 18 months.
- Following the 2016 halving, it climbed from $600 to nearly $20,000 by the end of 2017.
- After the 2020 halving, Bitcoin peaked above $67,000 in late 2021.
These patterns reflect a consistent market response: reduced selling pressure from miners, growing institutional adoption, and increased public awareness combine to drive exponential gains—typically 18 to 24 months after each halving.
The 2024 halving (H4) marks the latest inflection point. While volatility remains high, early signals suggest we are still in the early stages of accumulation before a potential surge into new all-time highs.
Projected Bitcoin Price Range: 2025 to 2029
According to Leo Heart’s updated logarithmic regression analysis, Bitcoin is projected to trade between $122,372 and $509,090 by 2029. This wide range accounts for both conservative and optimistic scenarios based on past performance cycles.
To reach the lower bound of $122,372 from today’s price of $106,952, Bitcoin needs just a 14.4% increase—a relatively modest climb given historical norms. However, what’s more significant is the analyst's claim that buying Bitcoin below $120,000 may not be possible after late 2028.
This suggests a narrowing window for investors seeking entry at sub-$120K levels. The reasoning lies in the structure of the regression bands used in the model:
- Lower bands represent undervalued zones—ideal for accumulation.
- Upper bands signal overbought conditions, often preceding corrections.
- Prices tend to revert toward the mean but progressively shift upward with each cycle.
Currently, Bitcoin remains near the middle-to-lower end of its long-term growth channel, indicating room for substantial upside without yet entering overvalued territory.
What to Expect from Bitcoin in 2025: Short-Term Forecast
While long-term projections provide context, many investors focus on near-term movements. Leo Heart anticipates that current price levels could persist into late 2028, with gradual appreciation expected throughout 2025.
By the end of 2025, he forecasts Bitcoin will likely trade between $137,000 and $165,000—a 28% to 54% increase from current levels. This aligns with broader market sentiment among institutional players.
Bitwise Asset Management, a leading crypto investment firm, recently reaffirmed its bold prediction that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 within six months—potentially as early as mid-2025. In a memo published on June 30, executives Ryan Rasmussen and Matt Hougan cited three key drivers:
- Growing institutional demand – More hedge funds, pension plans, and corporations are allocating capital to Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and monetary devaluation.
- Progress in U.S. crypto legislation – Regulatory clarity could unlock trillions in institutional liquidity currently on the sidelines.
- Rising interest in stablecoins and on-chain finance – Increased utility in decentralized ecosystems strengthens Bitcoin’s foundational role.
These factors suggest that even if short-term volatility persists, the underlying fundamentals remain strongly bullish.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Will Bitcoin drop below $100,000 again?
While short-term dips are always possible due to macroeconomic shocks or regulatory news, most long-term models suggest that sustained drops below $100,000 are unlikely after 2025. Support levels are strengthening due to increased adoption and limited supply post-halving.
Q: Is $120,000 a realistic resistance level?
$120,000 is not seen as resistance but rather a psychological milestone and potential breakout point. Once surpassed, technical indicators suggest rapid acceleration toward higher targets due to algorithmic trading and momentum chasing.
Q: When is the best time to buy Bitcoin?
Historically, the period 12–18 months after a halving event has offered optimal entry points before parabolic rallies begin. Given the 2024 halving, late 2025 through early 2026 may represent one of the last major accumulation windows before a bull run accelerates.
Q: Can Bitcoin really reach $500,000?
Based on logarithmic growth trends and increasing global adoption—especially in emerging markets and sovereign wealth funds—a price of $509,090 by 2029 is within plausible range, though it depends on macro conditions and regulatory developments.
Q: How reliable is the rainbow chart model?
The rainbow chart uses mathematical regression, not speculation. While not perfect, it has accurately captured major market phases over the past decade. It should be used alongside other indicators like on-chain data and trading volume for best results.
Final Thoughts: Act Before the Window Closes
The consensus among leading analysts is clear: Bitcoin is on track for another historic rally, fueled by scarcity, adoption, and macroeconomic tailwinds. With projections pointing toward six-figure prices within the next few years, waiting too long could mean missing out on one of the last opportunities to buy under $120,000.
Whether you're a long-term holder or a tactical investor, understanding market cycles and using data-driven tools can make all the difference. Now may be the time to position yourself ahead of the next leg up.
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