Bitcoin has surged 45% since bottoming near $75,000 in April, now trading just 4% below its all-time high of $112,000. After weeks of consolidation and multiple failed breakout attempts, the market stands at a pivotal juncture. The next few days could determine whether Bitcoin pushes into uncharted price territory or pulls back to key support levels around $103,600 and $100,000.
Bullish momentum is building as macroeconomic conditions stabilize and risk appetite returns. However, many investors remain cautious, waiting for clearer signals from Bitcoin’s price structure before making significant moves.
On-Chain Data Signals Accumulation Ahead of Potential Breakout
A key on-chain metric from CryptoQuant reveals that the 30-day change in Bitcoin’s active supply percentage has dropped to -17%, indicating a sharp decline in on-chain activity. This metric tracks how much of Bitcoin’s circulating supply has moved in the past six months compared to 30 days ago. A negative reading means fewer coins are moving—often a sign of accumulation by long-term holders or market hesitation.
While reduced activity might seem bearish at first glance, historical patterns suggest otherwise. A similar drop occurred in September 2024, just before a major rally took off. When supply becomes less liquid and more coins are held static, it creates a tightening effect. Once demand resurges—especially if triggered by a breakout—price movements can be swift and substantial.
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This current phase mirrors pre-rally conditions seen months earlier: low velocity, strong holder conviction, and growing macro tailwinds. With fewer coins available for sale, even moderate buying pressure could catalyze a rapid upward move.
Understanding the % Supply Active (30D Change) Metric
The "% Supply Active, 30D Change" metric, popularized by analyst Axel Adler, offers insight into market behavior by measuring shifts in coin movement over time. It compares the percentage of Bitcoin supply that has moved within the last 180 days against the same figure recorded 30 days prior.
- Positive values indicate increasing transactional activity—common during volatile rallies or periods of fear and capitulation.
- Negative values, like the current -17%, suggest declining movement, often associated with accumulation phases where investors "hodl" through consolidation.
Historically, deep negative readings have preceded strong upward moves. In late 2024, this metric dipped below -15% before Bitcoin embarked on a sustained rally. Today’s reading not only matches but exceeds that level of inactivity, reinforcing speculation that the market may be coiling for another leg up.
Weekly Chart Structure Hints at Imminent Breakout
Bitcoin’s weekly chart reflects sustained bullish strength despite recent resistance tests. At the time of writing, BTC trades near $107,795**, well above the critical support zone at **$103,600. The formation of higher lows since April underscores underlying demand, while the rising 50-week moving average—now at $85,961—acts as strong technical support.
Price action has formed a tight bullish flag pattern, typically a continuation structure following a strong advance. Though BTC has faced rejection near $109,300 multiple times, weekly closes have remained above $100,000—a sign of resilient buyer interest.
Volume has slightly declined during this consolidation phase, suggesting traders are waiting for confirmation before entering large positions. Yet, the absence of aggressive selling pressure indicates most participants expect an upside breakout rather than a collapse.
A decisive weekly close above **$109,300** would likely ignite momentum-driven buying and trigger stop orders, potentially propelling Bitcoin past its all-time high. Conversely, failure to break resistance could lead to a retest of the $103,600 support level—a floor that has held firm throughout Q2 2025.
Macro Conditions Support Further Upside
Beyond technicals, broader macro trends are aligning favorably for Bitcoin. U.S. equities recently hit new all-time highs, reflecting renewed investor confidence amid easing inflation concerns and stable interest rate expectations. As risk appetite improves, capital continues flowing into alternative assets—including digital currencies.
Bitcoin’s correlation with tech stocks and risk-on sentiment has strengthened in recent cycles, making it more sensitive to macro shifts. With liquidity conditions improving and institutional adoption accelerating (evidenced by increased ETF inflows), the foundation for another rally appears solid.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What does a -17% drop in Bitcoin’s 30D active supply mean?
A -17% drop means significantly fewer Bitcoins have moved on-chain over the past month compared to earlier periods. This often signals that long-term holders are accumulating or holding steady, reducing available supply—a condition historically linked to upcoming price increases.
Is low on-chain activity bullish for Bitcoin?
Yes, when on-chain activity declines during a consolidation phase—especially after a strong rally—it typically reflects holder confidence and reduced selling pressure. This "quiet before the storm" scenario has preceded major breakouts in previous cycles.
What price level confirms a Bitcoin breakout?
A weekly close above **$109,300** is the immediate confirmation level. Breaking this resistance would likely accelerate momentum and open the path toward new all-time highs. Sustained trading above $112,000 would confirm full price discovery mode.
How reliable is the % Supply Active (30D Change) metric?
It's considered a high-signal metric among on-chain analysts. Its ability to capture shifts in holder behavior makes it valuable for identifying accumulation phases and potential inflection points ahead of major moves.
Could Bitcoin pull back instead of breaking out?
Yes. If buying momentum stalls and BTC fails to reclaim $109,300, a retest of support at **$103,600–$100,000** is possible. However, given the strength of recent weekly closes and supportive macro conditions, such a move would likely be temporary.
What triggered the last Bitcoin rally in late 2024?
The late 2024 rally followed similar conditions: declining active supply, strong support holds, rising institutional inflows via ETFs, and improving macroeconomic sentiment. These factors combined to spark sustained upward momentum.
Final Outlook: A Breakout Is Brewing
Bitcoin is once again approaching a make-or-break moment. With on-chain data showing signs of accumulation, technical structure favoring continuation, and macro conditions turning supportive, the stage is set for another explosive move.
The -17% drop in 30-day active supply is not a red flag—it's a potential green light. History shows that when fewer coins move and holder conviction strengthens, the resulting breakout can be powerful.
All eyes are now on BTC’s next decisive move. Will it finally surpass $112,000 and enter uncharted territory? Or will it retest support before trying again? Either way, one thing is clear: Bitcoin is poised for volatility, and smart investors are positioning accordingly.
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