Ondo Price Prediction: 20% ONDO Unlock on January 18

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Ondo (ONDO) continues to face downward pressure in early 2025, with its price slipping to around $1.16 on Monday following a steep weekly decline of over 21%. Market sentiment has been dampened by the upcoming token unlock event and weakening on-chain metrics, raising concerns among traders and investors alike. The Ondo Foundation recently announced that it will unlock 20% of the ONDO supply on January 18, an event expected to significantly impact circulating supply and short-term price dynamics.

This article dives into the implications of the token unlock, analyzes key on-chain indicators signaling bearish momentum, and explores what these developments could mean for ONDO’s price trajectory in the coming weeks.

Upcoming 20% ONDO Token Unlock Explained

The Ondo Foundation confirmed via Twitter that multiple locked ONDO transfers are being prepared in anticipation of the first release from the Global Lock-Up. These transfers are primarily intended for:

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The full unlock is scheduled for January 18, releasing 20% of the total ONDO supply, which equates to approximately 134% of the current circulating supply. This substantial increase in available tokens raises legitimate concerns about potential sell pressure, especially if early holders or investors decide to offload their newly unlocked assets.

Historically, large token unlocks have often triggered volatility and downward price movements, particularly when market conditions are already fragile. With ONDO already experiencing a sharp correction, this event could exacerbate existing bearish trends unless offset by strong demand or positive project developments.

On-Chain Data Reveals Declining Network Activity

Beyond the unlock event, on-chain metrics suggest weakening investor engagement and growing pessimism in the Ondo ecosystem.

Negative Funding Rates Signal Bearish Sentiment

According to Coinglass, the OI-weighted funding rate for ONDO is currently at -0.047%, having remained negative since early January. A negative funding rate means that short positions are paying longs—typically a sign of bearish sentiment in perpetual futures markets.

When funding rates turn negative and stay there, it indicates that traders are positioning for further downside. This sustained bearish bias reflects low confidence in near-term price recovery and increases the likelihood of continued selling pressure.

Active Addresses Plummet Amid Falling Demand

Another concerning signal comes from Santiment’s Daily Active Addresses metric, which tracks user engagement on the blockchain. A drop in active addresses often correlates with declining network usage and reduced demand for the native token.

For ONDO, daily active addresses have fallen sharply—from 3,691 on December 16 to just 1,929 by mid-January, marking a decline of nearly 48% in under a month. This downward trend began in early December and shows no signs of reversal, suggesting waning interest from users and developers alike.

Low network activity can undermine long-term value accrual, as fewer transactions and interactions mean less organic demand for the token—especially during periods of increased supply.

What This Means for ONDO Price Outlook

Given the confluence of factors—the massive token unlock, declining active usage, and persistent bearish funding—ONDO appears vulnerable to further downside in the short term.

Key risks include:

However, it's important to note that such events are often priced in over time. If the market absorbs the unlocked supply without a major dump, and if the project delivers strong fundamentals post-unlock (such as new partnerships, product upgrades, or institutional adoption), a recovery could follow.

Investors should closely monitor:

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: What percentage of ONDO will be unlocked on January 18?
A: 20% of the total ONDO supply will be unlocked, equivalent to about 134% of the current circulating supply.

Q: Why is the ONDO unlock causing concern?
A: Such a large unlock introduces significant new supply into the market. If holders sell immediately, it can create strong downward price pressure.

Q: How do negative funding rates affect ONDO’s price?
A: Negative funding rates indicate more traders are betting on price declines, reinforcing bearish sentiment and potentially accelerating sell-offs.

Q: Are declining active addresses a major red flag?
A: Yes. Falling daily active addresses suggest reduced network usage and lower demand, which can weaken long-term price support.

Q: Could ONDO recover after the unlock?
A: Yes—while short-term pain is likely, a recovery is possible if selling pressure is absorbed and positive catalysts emerge, such as increased institutional use or protocol growth.

Q: How can I track ONDO’s unlock events and on-chain activity?
A: Use platforms like TokenUnlocks, Etherscan, Santiment, and Coinglass to monitor token releases, wallet movements, and market sentiment indicators.

Final Thoughts: Navigating Volatility with Informed Strategy

The upcoming ONDO unlock on January 18 represents a critical moment for the asset. While increased supply and weak on-chain metrics point to near-term challenges, savvy investors understand that volatility often creates opportunity.

Those holding ONDO should assess their risk tolerance and consider whether this dip aligns with longer-term conviction in decentralized finance (DeFi) and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization—the core pillars of Ondo’s vision.

As always, combining fundamental analysis with real-time on-chain insights offers the best path forward in uncertain markets.

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