XRP ETF Inflows Could Exceed $8.3 Billion by 2026, Says Standard Chartered

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The cryptocurrency market is abuzz with anticipation over the potential launch of a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States. As institutional interest grows and regulatory timelines come into focus, analysts are refining their outlooks on both market impact and investor demand. Among the most notable projections comes from Standard Chartered, which forecasts that an approved XRP ETF could attract between $4.4 billion and $8.3 billion in net inflows within its first year—drawing parallels with the success of existing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

This estimate is not merely speculative; it’s grounded in real-world performance data from current digital asset ETFs. With the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) facing a final decision deadline of October 12, 2026, for one of the leading applications, the window for approval is narrowing—but not closed.

Meanwhile, prediction markets like Polymarket suggest growing confidence: odds currently indicate a 79% probability of approval by year-end. This rising sentiment reflects broader shifts in regulatory thinking and increasing institutional appetite for diversified crypto investment vehicles.

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How Standard Chartered Built Its XRP ETF Inflow Forecast

At the heart of Standard Chartered’s projection is a comparative analysis based on net assets-to-market cap ratios observed in existing spot ETFs. Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, explains that this benchmarking method offers a data-driven way to model potential inflows for new products.

For context:

Applying these percentages to XRP’s current market value yields the projected range of $4.4 billion to $8.3 billion in initial inflows. While conservative compared to BTC, this represents significant institutional demand—especially given XRP's unique positioning in cross-border payments and financial infrastructure.

Kendrick also points to data from Bitwise ETP products in Europe, where XRP, Solana, and Litecoin are already traded alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum. Interestingly, these altcoins show higher asset-to-market-cap ratios than their U.S.-listed peers, possibly due to fewer competing investment vehicles in the European market.

This discrepancy suggests that once U.S.-listed XRP ETFs become available, they may experience outsized early adoption—particularly if retail and institutional investors view them as a regulated gateway to exposure.

Revising XRP Price Targets Amid ETF Optimism

With the possibility of an ETF launch gaining traction, Standard Chartered has updated its long-term XRP price forecast:

These targets assume regulatory approval and continued growth in crypto-based financial products. While ambitious, they align with historical trends seen after major structural developments in digital asset markets—such as the introduction of futures contracts or spot ETFs for other assets.

For comparison, the bank projects:

XRP’s projected growth accounts for lower overall adoption rates and higher inflation—currently at 6% annually, compared to Bitcoin’s 0.8%. However, its utility in real-time settlement systems and partnerships with global financial institutions may offset these disadvantages over time.

👉 Learn how inflation models affect long-term crypto valuations and ETF performance.

A Counterpoint: Bitfinex Warns of Market Saturation

Not all analysts share Standard Chartered’s optimism. Researchers at Bitfinex caution that investor attention could be diluted across a growing number of altcoin ETFs. If regulators approve multiple products—including those tied to Solana, Litecoin, or Cardano—demand for any single offering may fall short of expectations.

Their concern centers on two key factors:

  1. ETF market saturation: As more digital assets enter the regulated fund space, capital may spread thin.
  2. Regulatory uncertainty: Unlike Bitcoin, which the SEC has acknowledged as a commodity, XRP lacks clear classification and remains entangled in legal proceedings.

This ambiguity could deter large institutional players who require regulatory clarity before committing significant capital.

Moreover, recent enforcement actions and evolving interpretations of securities law add complexity to the approval process. Even with strong demand signals, the SEC may delay or reject applications until broader policy frameworks are established.

Regulatory Timeline: Will XRP Be Next?

Several major financial firms—including Grayscale, WisdomTree, Bitwise, Canary, and 21Shares—have filed applications for a spot XRP ETF. Among them, Bitwise received official acknowledgment from the SEC on February 18, triggering a 240-day review period that culminates on October 12, 2026.

This timeline mirrors the process followed for Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2024, suggesting a structured evaluation window. However, precedence may favor other assets.

Analysts like Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg believe Litecoin could be first in line among altcoins due to its long-standing treatment as a commodity and technical similarity to Bitcoin. HBAR (Hedera) might follow, benefiting from enterprise use cases and clearer governance.

In contrast, both XRP and Solana face unresolved questions about whether they qualify as securities under U.S. law—a critical hurdle that could delay approval despite strong market demand.

Polymarket data reflects this uncertainty:

These odds suggest cautious optimism but underscore that regulatory risk remains high.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: What factors influence XRP ETF inflow predictions?
A: Analysts primarily use the net assets-to-market cap ratio from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs as benchmarks. Liquidity, investor demand, product availability, and regulatory clarity also play crucial roles.

Q: When will we know if the XRP ETF is approved?
A: The SEC’s final decision on the Bitwise application is expected by October 12, 2026. Other filings may have different deadlines depending on filing dates and procedural milestones.

Q: Why is XRP’s inflation rate important for price forecasts?
A: Higher inflation (6% vs. BTC’s 0.8%) can dilute value over time unless offset by strong adoption or utility-driven demand. Models must account for supply growth when projecting long-term prices.

Q: Could multiple altcoin ETFs reduce XRP’s potential inflows?
A: Yes. If several altcoin ETFs launch simultaneously, capital may be distributed across options, limiting any one asset’s dominance—especially without clear differentiation.

Q: Is XRP considered a security in the U.S.?
A: The classification remains unresolved. While Ripple won partial summary judgment in its lawsuit with the SEC, the broader status of XRP under securities law is still debated.

Q: How do European ETPs inform U.S. ETF expectations?
A: Products like Bitwise ETP show higher altcoin adoption relative to market cap, suggesting pent-up demand in regulated markets—especially where product choice is limited.

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Final Outlook: Cautious Optimism Meets Institutional Demand

While challenges remain, the path toward a U.S.-listed XRP ETF appears increasingly plausible. With Standard Chartered’s inflow estimates backed by empirical models and growing market sentiment reflected in prediction platforms, momentum is building.

However, success hinges not just on demand—but on navigating complex regulatory terrain. Approval would mark a transformative moment for XRP, validating its role beyond speculation and into mainstream finance.

As investors await decisions in late 2026, one thing is clear: the future of crypto ETFs extends far beyond Bitcoin—and XRP could be a pivotal player in shaping what comes next.

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