In the past 24 hours, XRP has surged over 3.5%, signaling renewed bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market. Data from Deribit’s options market reveals strong interest in call options with strike prices at $3 — particularly for expiration dates on July 25 and September 28 — suggesting traders are positioning for a potential breakout above this key psychological level. This surge in derivative activity aligns with growing optimism around regulatory clarity and institutional adoption, including rising speculation about an XRP-based ETF being approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
👉 Discover how market sentiment is shifting in favor of XRP ahead of key regulatory milestones.
Rising Call Option Activity Points to Bullish Outlook
According to data from Amberdata, the most actively traded options contracts on Deribit include the July 25 $3.00 strike calls and the September 28 $2.80 strike calls. These figures reflect significant trader confidence that XRP will trade above these levels by their respective expiration dates.
Call options give buyers the right — but not the obligation — to purchase the underlying asset at a predetermined price (the strike price) before expiration. When there's heavy volume in call options, especially at higher strike prices, it typically reflects a bullish market bias.
For example, investors buying $3 strike calls are essentially betting that XRP’s spot price will exceed $3 by July 25. On Deribit, each options contract represents one XRP, making it easy to track real-time positioning.
Notably, the surge in $3 call volume is primarily driven by buyer-initiated trades. In the last 24 hours alone, over 2 million contracts changed hands through buy-side transactions, indicating strong demand from long-biased investors. Meanwhile, the $2.80 strike saw more seller activity, suggesting some profit-taking or hedging at lower levels.
Open interest — a measure of outstanding contracts — has also increased significantly over the past seven days for the $3 strike calls, reinforcing their status as the most popular bullish bet in the current market cycle.
ETF Hype Fuels Market Confidence
Analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart from Bloomberg have noted that rising activity in higher-strike call options strengthens expectations for a spot XRP ETF launch. They estimate the probability of SEC approval for such a product at 95%, calling it "almost a done deal."
This level of confidence stems from Ripple’s ongoing legal progress and increasing regulatory engagement. While the SEC lawsuit remains a backdrop, recent developments suggest a path toward formal recognition of XRP as a non-security under certain conditions — a critical prerequisite for any ETF approval.
The potential introduction of a spot XRP ETF would open the door to institutional capital inflows, similar to what was seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. It could also enhance liquidity, tighten spreads, and bring greater price transparency to the XRP market.
Ripple’s National Bank Application: A Game Changer?
In a major strategic move, Ripple Labs announced it has filed an application with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) for a national bank charter. If approved, this would allow Ripple to operate under federal banking regulations while maintaining its state-level oversight via the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS).
Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, emphasized the significance of this dual regulatory framework:
“If approved, we’ll have both state (via NYDFS) and federal oversight — a unique benchmark for trust in the stablecoin market.”
While Ripple is best known for its cross-border payment solutions using XRP, this move signals a broader ambition to become a regulated financial institution. A national bank charter could empower Ripple to issue its own stablecoin, facilitate fiat on-ramps, and offer custodial services — all within a compliant structure.
Such developments could indirectly boost demand for XRP by enhancing the overall credibility and utility of Ripple’s ecosystem.
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Technical Breakout: XRP/BTC Forms Bullish Wedge
From a technical perspective, the XRP/BTC trading pair — available on Binance — has displayed a compelling chart pattern known as a falling wedge, which is widely recognized as a bullish reversal formation.
A falling wedge is characterized by two converging downward-sloping trendlines, with the price range narrowing over time. This contraction indicates diminishing selling pressure and often precedes an upside breakout when buyers regain control.
In this case, XRP/BTC has decisively broken above the upper boundary of the wedge, confirming the validity of the pattern. Historically, such breakouts lead to sustained upward momentum, especially when accompanied by rising volume.
This technical development suggests that the corrective phase from April’s highs has concluded and that the broader uptrend for XRP may be resuming — even if priced in Bitcoin terms.
Key Technical Indicators: Mixed Signals Ahead
Despite the bullish breakout, moving averages present a more cautious outlook:
- The 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) are both trending downward.
- The 50-day SMA recently crossed below the 200-day SMA — a bearish signal known as a "death cross."
- However, moving averages are lagging indicators and often fail to capture real-time shifts in momentum.
Given that the wedge breakout occurred after this cross, it’s possible that short-term momentum is overriding longer-term bearish sentiment. Traders should monitor volume and retest behavior near the broken resistance-turned-support level to confirm continuation.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does a $3 call option mean for XRP?
A: A $3 call option gives the holder the right to buy XRP at $3 before expiration. High volume in these contracts suggests traders expect XRP to rise above $3 soon.
Q: How likely is an XRP ETF approval?
A: Analysts estimate a 95% chance of SEC approval for a spot XRP ETF, based on increased regulatory clarity and Ripple’s compliance efforts.
Q: Why is Ripple applying for a national bank charter?
A: A federal charter would allow Ripple to operate as a regulated financial institution, enhancing trust and enabling new services like stablecoin issuance and fiat integration.
Q: What is a falling wedge pattern?
A: It’s a bullish reversal pattern where price ranges narrow between two downward-sloping trendlines. A breakout above confirms upward momentum.
Q: Does staking play a role in XRP’s price movement?
A: While XRP itself isn’t traditionally staked like PoS coins, increased options trading volume at key strikes (e.g., $3) functions similarly by locking in long-term positions.
Q: Is XRP considered a security by the SEC?
A: The legal status remains under review, but recent developments suggest movement toward recognizing XRP as a non-security in specific use cases.
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Final Thoughts
The confluence of strong options activity, potential ETF approval, and Ripple’s push for federal banking status paints an optimistic picture for XRP’s future. While technical indicators remain mixed in the short term, the breaking of a key falling wedge pattern on XRP/BTC suggests underlying strength.
As regulatory clarity improves and institutional interest grows, XRP could be poised for a significant revaluation — especially if it sustains momentum above critical resistance levels.
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