The crypto markets are on the verge of a seismic shift—not driven by elections, but by the massive liquidity injections expected from central banks worldwide. According to Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX and a seasoned macro investor, the next bull cycle is already being primed by global monetary policy shifts. While political headlines dominate the news, Hayes urges investors to look beyond the noise and focus on what truly moves markets: liquidity.
In a recent appearance on the Unchained podcast, Hayes laid out a compelling investment thesis centered around monetary expansion, macroeconomic trends, and strategic asset allocation. Here’s a deep dive into his insights—refined for clarity, optimized for SEO, and structured for maximum reader engagement.
Election Volatility Is Just Market Noise
Hayes dismisses the idea that election outcomes will fundamentally alter financial markets. Whether it's Trump, Harris, or any other candidate, he argues that the underlying policy remains unchanged: flood the economy with cheap money. Since the Reagan era, U.S. economic strategy has revolved around debt-fueled growth and monetary stimulus. Elections, in this view, are less about ideology and more about who controls the flow of capital.
"It’s not about who wins—it’s about who gets to spend next."
That said, Hayes acknowledges one real risk: a contested election. If results are disputed, short-term market chaos could follow as legal battles and public unrest shake investor confidence. However, he sees this as a temporary disruption—not a long-term threat to crypto adoption or value.
For investors, the takeaway is clear: don’t overreact to political headlines. The macroeconomic engine driving asset prices is far more powerful than any single election.
👉 Discover how global liquidity trends can boost your digital asset strategy
Bitcoin Over Altcoins: The Liquidity Advantage
When it comes to portfolio construction, Hayes makes a strong case for Bitcoin as the cornerstone asset—especially during times of uncertainty.
While altcoins may offer explosive returns in bullish markets, they come with significantly lower liquidity and higher risk. In a crisis or sudden market downturn, selling smaller-cap tokens can mean slippage, delays, and steep losses.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, offers:
- Deep market liquidity
- Global recognition
- Proven resilience during macro shocks
Hayes advises holding Bitcoin as a primary position and only rotating into altcoins after BTC shows sustained strength. This approach allows investors to ride the initial wave of institutional capital while preserving the ability to exit quickly if conditions change.
He also highlights that altcoin seasons typically follow Bitcoin dominance, not precede it. So patience pays.
China’s Looming Stimulus Could Ignite Crypto Markets
One of the most underreported catalysts in 2025? China’s inevitable shift toward monetary easing.
Hayes points out that China’s economy has long been fueled by real estate credit expansion. Now, as that bubble deflates, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will likely respond with aggressive liquidity measures—similar to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s actions after 2008.
This flood of yuan into the system could have global ripple effects:
- Increased inflation pressure
- Capital flight into hard assets
- Higher demand for decentralized stores of value like Bitcoin
Even if China doesn’t directly buy crypto, the debasement of fiat currencies encourages investors worldwide to seek alternatives. And when combined with potential U.S. monetary easing, the result could be a perfect storm for crypto adoption.
Fed Policy: The Real Market Driver
Forget campaign speeches—the Federal Reserve holds the real power over market direction.
As U.S. government deficits grow and debt rolls over at higher rates, the Fed faces mounting pressure to stabilize financial conditions. If bank reserves drop too low, Hayes believes the central bank will have no choice but to:
- Slow or halt Quantitative Tightening (QT)
- Restart Quantitative Easing (QE)
Historically, such moves have led to surges in risk assets—including cryptocurrencies.
"When the Fed prints, everything goes up—especially scarce digital assets."
Crypto markets are uniquely sensitive to changes in monetary policy because they function as inflation hedges and decentralized alternatives to traditional finance. As confidence in fiat erodes, Bitcoin becomes increasingly attractive.
The Meme Coin Phenomenon: High Risk, Low Substance
Hayes doesn’t ignore the cultural wave behind meme coins like Goat or Doge. He acknowledges their viral appeal and psychological draw in an era of social media finance.
However, he issues a stark warning:
"Meme coins are entertainment, not investment."
These assets thrive on hype and community momentum but lack fundamentals. Their value is driven by sentiment—not utility or scarcity. While some traders may profit from short-term volatility, Hayes views them as speculative gambles suitable only for those who can afford to lose.
For serious investors, the focus should remain on assets with durable supply caps and proven network effects—like Bitcoin.
👉 Learn how to identify high-potential digital assets before the next rally
Stay Patient in a Politicized Financial World
Hayes’ overarching message is one of strategic patience.
In an age of 24/7 news cycles and political polarization, it’s easy to get swept up in fear or FOMO. But lasting wealth isn’t built on reacting to headlines—it’s built on understanding structural trends.
His advice?
- Focus on long-term macro drivers
- Hold hard assets like Bitcoin
- Avoid emotional trading during election cycles
The forces shaping the future of money—monetary expansion, currency devaluation, and technological disruption—are far more influential than any politician.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why does Arthur Hayes believe elections don’t matter for crypto markets?
A: Because regardless of who wins, government spending and central bank liquidity policies remain expansionary. The real market movers are monetary decisions—not political ones.
Q: Should I invest in altcoins now?
A: Hayes recommends waiting until Bitcoin shows strong momentum first. Altcoins tend to perform best after BTC leads the way. Prioritize liquidity and security during uncertain times.
Q: How could China’s economy affect Bitcoin?
A: A Chinese stimulus could weaken the yuan and increase inflation globally. Investors often turn to Bitcoin as a hedge against currency devaluation, potentially boosting demand.
Q: Is quantitative easing really coming back?
A: With rising U.S. deficits and fragile banking reserves, many analysts—including Hayes—believe the Fed will eventually resume QE to prevent financial stress.
Q: Are meme coins worth buying?
A: Hayes sees them as high-risk speculation with entertainment value. They lack fundamentals and are prone to extreme volatility—only allocate disposable income if you choose to participate.
Q: What’s the best strategy for the next bull run?
A: Build a core position in Bitcoin, stay informed about central bank policies, and avoid emotional decisions based on politics or short-term trends.
Final Thoughts: Liquidity Is King
Arthur Hayes isn’t predicting based on polls or pundits—he’s tracking central bank balance sheets. And what he sees is clear: a new era of global liquidity is beginning.
From Beijing to Washington, policymakers are preparing to unleash trillions in stimulus. That money won’t just inflate stock markets—it will spill into cryptocurrencies, commodities, and other scarce assets.
For forward-thinking investors, the path is straightforward:
- Recognize that macroeconomic forces outweigh political drama
- Position early in high-liquidity digital assets
- Stay disciplined through volatility
The next bull run won’t be about who wins an election—it will be about who understands where the money is flowing.
👉 See how you can prepare your portfolio for the next phase of digital asset growth