Bitcoin has surged to astonishing new heights, recently hitting a record high above $91,900—marking an impressive 118% gain year to date. As the world’s largest cryptocurrency continues its upward momentum, investors are asking a critical question: Will bitcoin keep going up? While the rally shows signs of strength, historical patterns and on-chain data suggest caution may be warranted. According to analysts at Glassnode, three key warning signs indicate that a major pullback could be on the horizon.
Entering a New Phase of Price Discovery
Bitcoin has entered what Glassnode describes as a “new price-discovery phase,” where the market continuously tests uncharted price levels. During such periods, nearly all of bitcoin’s circulating supply moves into a profitable position—meaning most holders are sitting on gains.
This phase is typically characterized by strong investor confidence, increased media attention, and rising institutional participation. However, history shows these phases don’t last indefinitely.
Glassnode’s research reveals that previous price-discovery phases have lasted an average of 22 days before giving way to a significant correction. With the current rally already in its 12th consecutive day of high profitability, the window for further upside may be narrowing.
Warning Sign #1: Supply in Profit Approaching Historical Peaks
One of the most telling indicators of an impending pullback is the percentage of bitcoin’s circulating supply that is in profit. Right now, that number is nearing historic highs.
When over 95% of all existing bitcoins are held at a profit, it creates a ripe environment for profit-taking. Even a small wave of selling can trigger broader market volatility, especially if momentum traders begin to exit their positions.
Historically, once this threshold is crossed, it hasn’t taken long for prices to cool off. The current environment mirrors past cycles where euphoria peaked just before a correction. While not a definitive signal of a crash, it does suggest that the market is entering late-stage bullish territory—a time when caution becomes essential.
Warning Sign #2: Realized Profit Levels Still Below Historical Highs
Another metric to watch is realized profit, which measures the total capital gains locked in when bitcoins are spent. During previous bull runs, monthly realized profits have ranged between $30 billion and $50 billion before demand exhaustion set in and the rally lost steam.
Currently, realized profits stand at approximately $20.4 billion since bitcoin entered this latest phase of record-breaking prices. That means there’s still room for more profit-taking—potentially fueling further upward movement in the short term.
“While profit-taking is substantial, it remains below historical peaks, suggesting additional room for further gains before reaching potential demand exhaustion,” Glassnode analysts noted.
This implies the rally isn’t yet overdone—but also highlights that we’re approaching a critical inflection point. Once realized profits climb into the $30B+ range, it could signal that market sentiment is shifting from accumulation to distribution.
Warning Sign #3: Approaching Statistical Upper Price Band
Glassnode also analyzed the cost basis of short-term holders—the investors who bought bitcoin within the last 155 days. The current average acquisition price sits around $66,800**, with statistical upper and lower bands calculated at **$94,900 and $51,600, respectively.
As bitcoin approaches the upper band of $94,900, it may indicate that prices are becoming overextended relative to recent buying activity. At these levels, many existing holders—who bought in earlier at much lower prices—are likely to see significant profits, increasing the incentive to sell.
“If bitcoin approaches the upper band at $94,900, it may highlight when periods of intense demand are slowing down, and where price is high enough for many existing holders to ramp up their sell-side pressure,” the analysts wrote.
This doesn’t mean a crash is imminent—but it does suggest that resistance could build rapidly near this psychological and statistical ceiling.
FAQ: Understanding Bitcoin’s Rally and Risks
Q: Is bitcoin likely to drop soon based on current trends?
A: While no one can predict exact timing, historical patterns suggest that after extended rallies with nearly all supply in profit, corrections often follow within weeks. The current market structure shows similarities to past pre-pullback phases.
Q: What causes bitcoin price corrections after record highs?
A: Corrections typically occur due to profit-taking, reduced buying pressure, and shifts in market sentiment. When most investors are in profit, even minor negative news or regulatory concerns can trigger sell-offs.
Q: How can I protect my investments during volatile periods?
A: Consider strategies like dollar-cost averaging, setting stop-loss orders, or reallocating a portion of profits into stable assets. Staying informed through reliable on-chain analytics can also help guide decisions.
Q: Does this mean the bull run is over?
A: Not necessarily. A pullback doesn’t end a bull market—it often resets momentum and clears out weak hands. Many major corrections have been followed by renewed rallies once demand rebuilds.
Q: What should I watch for as early warning signals?
A: Monitor metrics like percentage of supply in profit, realized profit/loss ratios, exchange inflows (which may signal selling pressure), and whale wallet movements—all available through blockchain analytics platforms.
What This Means for Investors
The current bitcoin rally remains powerful and supported by strong fundamentals—including halving dynamics, growing institutional adoption, and macroeconomic factors like inflation hedging. However, the signs highlighted by Glassnode suggest that investors should prepare for increased volatility.
Rather than viewing a potential pullback as a threat, it can be seen as a natural part of the market cycle—one that offers strategic entry points for long-term holders.
It’s also important to distinguish between short-term price noise and long-term value trends. While emotions run high during record-breaking moves, maintaining discipline and relying on data-driven insights can help avoid reactionary decisions.
Final Thoughts: Proceed with Optimism—and Caution
Bitcoin’s journey above $91,900 is a milestone that reflects growing mainstream acceptance and confidence in digital assets. Yet history reminds us that euphoric markets often precede corrections. The three warning signs—near-total supply in profit, rising realized gains, and proximity to statistical resistance—warrant close attention.
For savvy investors, this moment isn’t about fear—it’s about preparation. Whether you're holding, buying, or considering exiting part of your position, grounding your decisions in analytics rather than emotion is key.
As the market evolves, staying informed through transparent, real-time blockchain data will continue to provide an edge.
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