Bitcoin is once again knocking on the door of its all-time high, trading near $96,800 and climbing over 3% today. Despite strong momentum, the flagship cryptocurrency faces stiff resistance around the $100,000 and $110,000 psychological and technical barriers. With sentiment divided between retail enthusiasm and institutional caution, many are asking: Is a new peak just 70 days away? And more importantly—are we still in a predictable crypto cycle at all?
The Road to a New All-Time High
Bitcoin’s previous all-time high of $109,358 was set in January 2025—approximately 141 days ago. Historically, macro analysts have observed that Bitcoin tends to reach new highs about 211 days after hitting a previous peak. Based on this average timeline, the next record-breaking surge could arrive in roughly 70 days.
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A prominent macro analyst noted that while 211 days is the historical average, current market dynamics suggest the next all-time high might come even faster. “This rally has different fuel,” they said. “Institutional positioning, macro liquidity trends, and regulatory clarity are creating a unique environment.”
Still, averages are just that—averages. The real question isn’t just when Bitcoin will hit a new high, but how it will get there. And that’s where things get complicated.
Why the 4-Year Crypto Cycle May Be Fading
For years, the crypto market has operated under the widely accepted theory of 4-year cycles, closely tied to Bitcoin’s halving events. Each cycle typically follows a pattern: halving → accumulation → bull run → all-time high → correction → bear market → repeat.
But according to Jeff Dorman, CIO of ARCA and seasoned crypto investor, that model is losing relevance.
“The idea of a predictable 4-year crypto cycle is outdated,” Dorman stated in a recent market analysis. “We’re transitioning into a market structure that resembles traditional equities more than ever before.”
Instead of sharp, explosive rallies followed by deep crashes, Dorman predicts longer bull markets with gradual price appreciation and only brief corrections. Bear markets, he believes, will become shorter and less severe as the asset class matures.
This shift is driven by several key factors:
- Increased institutional participation (though still cautious)
- Greater regulatory clarity
- Improved market infrastructure
- Broader adoption across payment systems and treasury reserves
However, a growing misalignment between retail and institutional investors is adding volatility to an otherwise stabilizing ecosystem.
Retail vs. Institutional Sentiment: A Growing Divide
Currently, retail investors remain highly optimistic. Despite short-term price fluctuations, they continue to "buy the dip," fueled by social sentiment, meme-driven narratives, and strong conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term value.
On the other hand, institutions are holding back. While many have allocated to crypto at some level, full-scale re-entry into risk assets has been delayed due to macroeconomic uncertainty—particularly around inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical tensions.
“This disconnect is unusual,” Dorman explained. “In past cycles, retail led early, institutions followed at peak momentum. Now, institutions are waiting for clearer signals before deploying capital.”
This hesitation could delay the next major leg up—but not prevent it.
Two Possible Paths Ahead: Dorman’s Market Outlook
Jeff Dorman outlines two potential scenarios for the coming months, each with distinct implications for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Scenario 1: Resolution of Macro Tensions (80% Probability)
The most likely path involves the de-escalation of current political and economic headwinds—particularly those related to trade policies and global tariffs. If tensions ease, especially following shifts in U.S. fiscal or trade strategy, the recent market dip could be viewed as a temporary correction rather than the start of a bear phase.
In this case:
- Bitcoin resumes its upward trajectory within weeks
- Altcoins begin to outperform in a renewed "altseason"
- Institutional capital gradually re-enters the market
- Price targets of $120,000–$150,000 for Bitcoin become plausible within 6–9 months
Dorman compares this scenario to the 2020 market crash during the early days of the pandemic—sharp but short-lived, followed by a powerful recovery fueled by liquidity injections and renewed risk appetite.
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Scenario 2: U.S. Recession Looms (20% Probability)
A less likely but high-impact scenario involves the U.S. slipping into a full-blown recession. While indicators aren’t flashing red yet, rising unemployment claims, slowing GDP growth, and persistent inflation could combine to trigger a downturn.
Even if a recession begins, Dorman emphasizes that it may take 6 to 12 months before it's officially confirmed. In the interim:
- Crypto markets may continue to rise due to lagging economic data
- Bitcoin could still reach new highs as a hedge against currency devaluation
- Volatility will spike during key economic reports
Ultimately, Bitcoin’s performance during a recession would depend on whether central banks respond with aggressive monetary easing—a classic "risk-on" catalyst for digital assets.
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Frequently Asked Questions
When is Bitcoin expected to reach a new all-time high?
Based on historical averages and current momentum, Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high in approximately 70 days—potentially by mid-July 2025. However, macro conditions and institutional flows will play a decisive role.
Is the 4-year crypto cycle still valid?
Many experts, including Jeff Dorman, believe the traditional 4-year cycle is losing relevance due to increased institutional involvement and maturing market infrastructure. Future cycles may be longer and less predictable.
Why are institutions not buying despite high retail interest?
Institutions are waiting for clearer macro signals—especially regarding inflation, interest rates, and regulatory frameworks—before committing significant capital. Their risk tolerance is lower than retail investors'.
Can Bitcoin break $100,000 soon?
Yes—Bitcoin has already tested the $97,000 level and could breach $100,000 in the near term if bullish momentum holds and selling pressure from long-term holders subsides.
What triggers the next altseason?
Altseason typically follows sustained Bitcoin dominance decline and rising capital rotation into altcoins. Key indicators include rising DeFi TVL, NFT volume spikes, and exchange inflows for Ethereum and mid-cap tokens.
How does geopolitics affect Bitcoin’s price?
Geopolitical uncertainty often boosts demand for decentralized assets like Bitcoin as hedges against currency instability and capital controls. However, trade wars or sanctions can also increase short-term volatility.
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Final Thoughts: A New Era for Crypto Markets
The days of simple halving-driven rallies may be behind us. As Bitcoin inches toward $100K and beyond, it’s clear that we’re entering a more complex phase—one shaped less by predictable cycles and more by global macro forces, investor psychology, and institutional strategy.
Whether Bitcoin hits a new high in 70 days or faces delays due to economic headwinds, one thing remains certain: the rules of the game are changing.
For investors, adaptability is now more valuable than rigid adherence to old models. Staying informed, monitoring sentiment shifts, and preparing for multiple scenarios will be key to navigating what promises to be one of the most dynamic chapters in crypto history.