The cryptocurrency market is currently in the middle stages of a new bull cycle, according to research from Grayscale, one of the most influential digital asset managers in the industry. While past patterns suggest that price surges typically last around three years, current on-chain and macro indicators show that this cycle may have further room to run — potentially extending into 2026 or beyond, provided key fundamentals remain strong.
This analysis draws on historical price behavior, blockchain-based metrics, and evolving market dynamics to assess where we stand in the current crypto cycle. With spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs opening new doors for institutional participation and shifting regulatory landscapes adding clarity, the foundation for sustained growth appears more robust than in previous cycles.
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Understanding Bitcoin’s Historical Market Cycles
Bitcoin has historically followed a roughly four-year cycle, closely tied to its halving events — when block rewards for miners are cut in half, reducing new supply entering the market. These cycles consist of distinct phases: accumulation (post-bottom stabilization), markup (rapid price increase), peak (euphoric highs), and correction (bear market decline).
Looking back:
- 2013 Cycle: Lasted less than a year; price surged over 500x from cycle low.
- 2017 Cycle: Spanned about two years; again saw gains exceeding 500x.
- 2021 Cycle: Lasted nearly three years; price rose approximately 20x from its 2018 bottom.
Each cycle varied in duration and magnitude, but all shared a common pattern: explosive growth following periods of consolidation. The current bull phase began in November 2022, when Bitcoin hit a local bottom around $16,000 after the Terra and FTX collapses. As of now, it has appreciated roughly 6x — significant, yet modest compared to prior peaks.
This suggests the rally may still be unfolding. Historically, Bitcoin’s bull markets don’t end abruptly after early gains — they build momentum over time. Given that the current uptrend has lasted over two years and hasn't yet matched past return profiles, there's a strong case for continuation.
On-Chain Metrics Signal Mid-Cycle Momentum
Beyond price charts, blockchain data offers real-time insight into investor behavior and network health. Several key indicators suggest the market is neither overheated nor stagnant — but firmly in mid-cycle.
MVRV Ratio: Still Room for Expansion
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio compares Bitcoin’s current market cap to the aggregate cost basis of all coins. When MVRV exceeds 3.5–4.0, it has historically signaled market tops.
Today, MVRV sits at 2.6 — elevated above its cycle lows but far from previous peak levels. This implies widespread profitability without extreme overvaluation, supporting the view that the rally can continue.
HODL Waves: Not All Coins Have Moved Yet
Another useful metric is the percentage of Bitcoin’s floating supply that has moved on-chain within the past year — often referred to as HODL Waves. In past cycles, this figure reached at least 60% before topping out.
Currently, only about 54% of freely tradable BTC has changed hands in the last 12 months. That gap suggests significant “bagholders” are still waiting for higher prices before selling — a sign of conviction and potential future selling pressure only later in the cycle.
Miner Behavior: No Capitulation in Sight
Miners play a crucial role in network security and sentiment. The Miner Cap (MC) to Thermocap (TC) ratio measures miner profitability relative to their cumulative revenue from block rewards and fees.
Historically, when MC/TC surpassed 10, it coincided with market peaks as miners took profits. Today, the ratio stands at ~6, indicating miners are still accumulating or holding — not dumping. This reinforces the idea that we're not near exhaustion.
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Broader Market Indicators: Speculation Rising, But Not Peaking
While Bitcoin remains the cornerstone of the crypto market, broader trends across altcoins offer additional context.
Bitcoin Dominance: A Shifting Landscape
Bitcoin dominance — its share of total crypto market cap — often peaks around two years into a bull run, then declines as capital rotates into altcoins.
We’re now approaching that two-year mark (late 2024), and BTC dominance has begun to soften. If history repeats, this could usher in a “altseason” — a period of outsized gains for Ethereum, Solana, and other major ecosystems.
However, such rotation typically occurs before the final leg of the bull market, not at its end. This transition may actually signal renewed momentum rather than an imminent top.
Funding Rates and Open Interest: Caution Amid Greed
Funding rates — the cost of maintaining leveraged long positions in perpetual futures — reflect short-term trader sentiment. High positive rates indicate aggressive speculation.
Currently, funding rates for top altcoins are moderately positive, but well below highs seen earlier in 2024 and during the 2021 mania. That suggests enthusiasm exists but hasn’t reached euphoric levels.
In contrast, open interest (OI) in altcoin perpetual contracts recently hit nearly **$54 billion** across major exchanges — a record high before a large-scale liquidation wiped out ~$10 billion in positions. Even post-clearance, OI remains elevated.
High leverage doesn’t necessarily mean the end is near — it can fuel further upside until a trigger event causes cascading sells. But it does underscore the need for risk management.
Why This Bull Market Could Last Longer Than Before
Two structural shifts differentiate today’s environment from past cycles:
Spot ETFs Bring Institutional Capital
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 unlocked over $36 billion in net inflows. These products integrate crypto into traditional portfolios via retirement accounts, hedge funds, and wealth managers — creating sustained demand beyond retail speculation.Ethereum ETF approvals could follow in 2025, potentially unlocking even greater capital flows.
- Regulatory Clarity on the Horizon
The upcoming U.S. administration may bring more favorable policies for digital assets. Increased regulatory certainty reduces systemic risk and encourages long-term investment — a stark contrast to previous cycles marked by uncertainty and crackdowns.
Together, these developments suggest Bitcoin is transitioning from a speculative asset to a recognized macro asset class — one increasingly held for diversification and inflation hedging.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What stage of the crypto cycle are we in right now?
A: Based on price duration, on-chain activity, and valuation metrics like MVRV and miner ratios, we are likely in the mid-phase of the current bull market — with potential for further gains through 2025 and possibly into 2026.
Q: Can Bitcoin surpass its previous all-time high?
A: Yes. With ETF-driven demand, growing adoption, and limited supply post-halving, many analysts believe new highs are not only possible but probable if macro conditions remain supportive.
Q: Are we in a bubble?
A: Not yet. While certain pockets show speculative heat (e.g., high altcoin OI), broader indicators like funding rates and MVRV remain below historical extremes. True bubbles exhibit widespread euphoria — which hasn't materialized.
Q: How do I know when the bull run is ending?
A: Watch for sustained MVRV > 3.8, MC/TC > 9–10, funding rates spiking above 0.1% daily, and rapid rises in social media frenzy. Also monitor Bitcoin dominance reversals and mass retail participation.
Q: Should I invest in altcoins now?
A: As Bitcoin dominance wanes, altcoins may enter a stronger phase. However, focus on projects with real utility, strong development teams, and growing on-chain activity to reduce risk.
Q: Will Ethereum ETFs extend the bull market?
A: Likely yes. If approved in 2025, spot Ethereum ETFs could mirror Bitcoin’s trajectory — bringing institutional inflows and validating smart contract platforms as investable assets.
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