The third Bitcoin block reward halving occurred on May 11, 2025, at 19:23 UTC, when block 630,000 was mined. This pivotal event reduced miner rewards from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC per block—a built-in mechanism designed to control supply and reinforce scarcity. Occurring roughly every four years, halvings are central to Bitcoin’s deflationary economic model and have historically influenced market dynamics.
But Bitcoin wasn’t the only network undergoing a halving in early 2025. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Bitcoin SV (BSV), both hard forks of the original Bitcoin blockchain, completed their own halving events just weeks earlier in April. Despite sharing a common origin and similar consensus rules, the post-halving performance of these networks diverged sharply—especially in terms of hash rate stability.
Hash Rate Divergence: Forks Plummet While Bitcoin Holds Strong
Hash rate—the total computational power dedicated to securing a blockchain—serves as a key indicator of network health and security. A stable or rising hash rate signals strong miner participation, while sharp drops can expose networks to risks like 51% attacks.
Following their respective halvings, both BCH and BSV experienced dramatic hash rate declines:
- BSV: Within 14 hours of its halving, the network’s hash rate fell from 3.06 exahashes per second (EH/s) to 1.23 EH/s—a staggering 60% drop.
- BCH: Over a 24-hour window post-halving, its hash rate plunged by over 80%, reflecting a mass exodus of mining power.
These collapses highlight the fragility of smaller networks when profitability is squeezed. With fewer miners and less economic incentive, even modest reductions in block rewards can trigger widespread shutdowns.
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In contrast, Bitcoin’s hash rate demonstrated remarkable resilience. According to data from CoinWarz, just seven hours after the halving, Bitcoin’s hash rate dipped only slightly—from 130.47 EH/s to 122.64 EH/s, a decline of about 6.01%. More importantly, this level aligns closely with the one-week average reported by Blockchain.com (~120 EH/s), suggesting the drop was temporary and within normal fluctuation ranges.
This divergence raises an important question: Why did Bitcoin maintain stability while its forks faltered?
Key Factors Behind Bitcoin’s Post-Halving Resilience
1. Transaction Fee Market Strength
One major differentiator is Bitcoin’s robust transaction fee ecosystem. Analyst Zack Voell from CoinDesk noted that transaction fees accounted for approximately 15% of total miner revenue immediately after the halving.
While still secondary to block rewards, this fee income provides a crucial buffer for miners—especially during periods of high network congestion or price volatility. In contrast, BCH and BSV have significantly smaller user bases and lower transaction volumes, limiting their fee markets and leaving miners more dependent on block subsidies.
2. Network Security and Attack Resistance
A healthy hash rate directly correlates with security. Crypto51.app data shows that the cost to launch a one-hour 51% attack on Bitcoin is over 14,400% higher than attacking BCH. This vast disparity reflects not just computational power but also the economic disincentives for malicious actors targeting the dominant chain.
Bitcoin’s sustained hash rate reinforces its position as the most secure decentralized network—a feature that attracts long-term investment and institutional interest.
3. Miner Sentiment and Price Expectations
Despite reduced rewards, many Bitcoin miners appear optimistic about future price appreciation. This bullish sentiment likely encourages them to operate at break-even or even slight losses in anticipation of higher BTC valuations down the line.
However, this confidence has limits.
Challenges Looming Beneath the Surface
Matt D’Souza, CEO of Blockware Mining and a seasoned digital asset strategist, warned that around 30% of Bitcoin’s current hash rate comes from miners operating at or near break-even levels. He identified $8,550 as a critical threshold—if Bitcoin’s price falls below this level, a wave of miner shutdowns could follow.
Supporting this view, digital asset analyst Charles Edwards calculated that the global average cost to mine one BTC post-halving reached **$14,000**, assuming an electricity cost of $0.04 per kWh. If accurate, this implies a significant portion of the mining industry is currently unprofitable.
Such figures underscore the delicate balance between energy costs, hardware efficiency, and market price—a balance that can shift rapidly with macroeconomic changes or regulatory developments.
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Broader Economic Influences on Mining Profitability
Interestingly, external factors may be helping offset some of the halving’s financial pressure. The sharp decline in global oil prices during early 2025 has led to lower electricity costs in several mining-heavy regions, particularly in North America and parts of Asia.
Cheaper energy improves profit margins for miners using efficient rigs, effectively extending their operational runway even if BTC prices remain stagnant. Additionally, advancements in ASIC technology and increased access to renewable energy sources are contributing to long-term sustainability in the mining sector.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is a cryptocurrency halving?
A: A halving is a pre-programmed event that reduces the block reward given to miners by 50%. For Bitcoin, this occurs approximately every four years (every 210,000 blocks) and is designed to control inflation and enhance scarcity over time.
Q: Why did BCH and BSV suffer larger hash rate drops than Bitcoin?
A: Smaller networks like BCH and BSV have less diversified miner participation and weaker transaction fee markets. When block rewards are cut, many miners lack sufficient alternative income to justify continued operation, leading to rapid hash rate declines.
Q: Is Bitcoin mining still profitable after the halving?
A: Profitability varies by miner. Those with low electricity costs and modern hardware remain profitable, especially if BTC prices rise. However, miners with high operational costs or outdated equipment may be operating at a loss.
Q: Can a low hash rate lead to security risks?
A: Yes. A declining hash rate makes a blockchain more vulnerable to attacks such as double-spending via 51% attacks. Networks with concentrated mining power or limited decentralization are at greater risk.
Q: How does transaction volume affect miner income?
A: Higher transaction volume increases competition for block space, driving up fees. Miners earn both block rewards and transaction fees; thus, strong network usage helps offset reductions in block subsidies.
Q: What happens if BTC price drops below break-even mining cost?
A: Miners facing sustained losses will likely shut down operations until conditions improve. This can lead to a temporary drop in hash rate until less efficient miners are phased out and equilibrium is restored.
Bitcoin’s ability to maintain hash rate stability after the 2025 halving underscores its resilience as the leading blockchain network. While challenges remain—particularly around energy costs and price volatility—the combination of strong fee income, robust infrastructure, and optimistic market sentiment has helped miners weather the transition.
As the ecosystem evolves, continued innovation in mining efficiency and energy sourcing will be key to sustaining long-term profitability and decentralization.