Cardano (ADA) remains at a pivotal crossroads in 2025, with its long-term trajectory hanging in the balance. After a delayed rally at the end of 2024 and a subsequent breakdown, ADA is now testing a critical resistance zone that could determine whether the asset enters a sustained bullish phase or resumes its bearish decline. Traders and investors alike are closely watching price action around the $0.70–$0.75 range, where key technical indicators and structural patterns converge.
This analysis dives into the current technical landscape of Cardano, evaluates conflicting signals across timeframes, and explores what must happen for ADA to confirm a genuine reversal. Whether you're a long-term holder or an active trader, understanding these dynamics is essential for navigating the next phase of ADA’s market cycle.
Cardano Faces Critical Resistance at $0.70
The weekly chart for Cardano paints a cautionary picture. After peaking at $1.33 in December 2024, ADA began a steady decline, forming a lower high in March—marked by a massive bearish engulfing candle. This reversal pattern signaled strong selling pressure and accelerated the downward momentum.
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A crucial development was ADA’s failure to sustain above the $0.70 level—a horizontal resistance zone that previously acted as support. In technical analysis, such reversals after breakout failures often indicate weakness and can invalidate bullish structures. The fact that ADA closed below $0.70 undermines the validity of its November 2024 breakout, which was initially seen as a confirmation of long-term strength.
Currently, both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are at neutral levels—RSI near 50 and MACD hovering around zero. These readings suggest neither overbought nor oversold conditions, leaving the door open for either a bullish breakout or a bearish continuation. The next decisive move in price will likely trigger corresponding shifts in these indicators, providing stronger directional signals.
Bearish Wave Structure Suggests Further Decline
From an Elliott Wave perspective, Cardano’s long-term structure appears bearish. The theory suggests that ADA completed a five-wave bearish decline (labeled in red) following its all-time high in 2021. If this count holds, the recent upward movement throughout 2024 and into early 2025 is best interpreted as a corrective A-B-C pattern (shown in green), rather than the start of a new bull cycle.
This interpretation gains credibility because the rally peaked near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level—a common termination point for corrective waves. Historically, such patterns are followed by renewed downtrends, potentially pushing ADA toward new lows if the broader bearish structure resumes.
Such a scenario would align with traditional market behavior, where corrective rallies fail to reverse the dominant trend without breaking key resistance levels. Until ADA demonstrates sustained strength above $0.75, this bearish wave count remains a valid and concerning outlook.
Short-Term Bullish Signs Emerge on Daily Chart
Despite the bearish long-term structure, the daily chart reveals reasons for cautious optimism. ADA has been trading within a descending parallel channel since early 2025—a pattern typically associated with corrective downtrends. These channels often contain temporary bearish momentum before culminating in a breakout to the upside.
A notable bounce occurred on April 7, marked by increased buying volume and a rejection of lower prices. This reversal, combined with the formation of higher lows inside the channel, suggests growing bullish pressure. Such price behavior often precedes a breakout, especially when accompanied by strengthening momentum.
For the bullish case to solidify, ADA must reclaim the midline of the descending channel near $0.75. This level acts as both psychological and technical resistance and serves as a confirmation point for trend reversal. A close above $0.75 would not only break the channel but also confirm a reclaim of the long-term $0.70 resistance—doubling down on bullish conviction.
Conflicting Signals Create Uncertainty
The current state of Cardano’s market presents a classic tug-of-war between long-term bearish structure and short-term bullish momentum. On one hand, the weekly chart shows a failed breakout, neutral indicators, and a potential A-B-C correction—factors that favor further downside. On the other hand, the daily chart displays constructive price action, including higher lows and a developing breakout setup.
This divergence creates uncertainty, but it also presents opportunity. The market will likely resolve this conflict through a decisive move—either a strong breakout above $0.75 or a breakdown below current support levels.
Key levels to watch:
- Resistance: $0.70 (immediate), $0.75 (channel midline), $0.85 (channel upper boundary)
- Support: $0.62 (recent swing low), $0.55 (strong historical support)
A close above $0.75 on the daily timeframe would be the strongest signal yet that bulls have regained control. Conversely, failure to hold above $0.62 could trigger another leg down toward $0.55 or lower.
Core Keywords and Market Context
Understanding Cardano’s current position requires familiarity with several core concepts:
- Cardano (ADA): A proof-of-stake blockchain platform known for its academic approach and scalability focus.
- Technical analysis: The study of price patterns and indicators to forecast future movements.
- Resistance level: A price point where selling pressure historically overwhelms buying interest.
- Fibonacci retracement: A tool used to identify potential reversal levels based on prior price swings.
- Elliott Wave Theory: A method of analyzing market cycles through recurring wave patterns.
- Bullish breakout: A price move above resistance that signals potential upward momentum.
- Descending parallel channel: A chart pattern indicating temporary downtrend within a larger correction.
- Market sentiment: The overall attitude of investors toward an asset, influenced by price action and news.
These keywords naturally reflect the search intent of users looking for ADA price predictions, technical insights, and investment guidance.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the key resistance level for Cardano in 2025?
A: The most critical resistance is at $0.70, with additional significance at $0.75—the midline of the current descending channel.
Q: Is Cardano in a bull or bear market?
A: The long-term trend appears bearish based on wave structure and failed breakouts, but short-term signs suggest a potential reversal if key levels are reclaimed.
Q: What does a breakout above $0.75 mean for ADA?
A: It would confirm bullish momentum, invalidate the descending channel pattern, and potentially trigger a retest of higher levels like $0.85 or $1.00.
Q: Can Cardano reach $1 again?
A: Yes, but only if it sustains moves above $0.75 and builds momentum through successive highs—a scenario dependent on broader market conditions and adoption.
Q: What happens if ADA fails to break $0.70?
A: Continued trading below this level increases the likelihood of another downtrend, possibly toward $0.55 or lower support zones.
Q: How reliable is Elliott Wave analysis for crypto?
A: While subjective, Elliott Wave can provide valuable structural insights when combined with other tools like volume, RSI, and Fibonacci levels.
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Conclusion
Cardano’s path forward hinges on one critical factor: breaking and closing above key resistance levels at $0.70–$0.75. Until then, the asset remains locked in uncertainty—a battleground between lingering bearish pressure and emerging bullish momentum.
While long-term wave counts suggest further downside, short-term price action offers hope for a reversal. Traders should monitor volume, candlestick patterns, and indicator confirmations closely as ADA approaches these make-or-break levels.
Ultimately, only a decisive breakout will shift sentiment decisively in favor of bulls. Until that moment arrives, caution remains the prudent approach—but opportunity may be just one candle away.