XRP, the payments-focused cryptocurrency, has surged over 3.5% in the past 24 hours, capturing the attention of traders and investors alike. With growing activity in options markets and a key technical breakout forming, sentiment around XRP is turning decisively bullish. At the heart of this momentum are rising bets on XRP reaching $3 — and potentially higher — supported by strong trading volume and a promising chart pattern in the XRP/BTC pair.
Rising Bullish Bets in Deribit Options Market
The Deribit options market is revealing a clear shift in trader sentiment. Since July 1, call options with higher strike prices — particularly the $3.00 and $4.00 strikes for the July 25 expiry — have seen significant trading volume. The September 28 call at $2.80 has also gained traction, but the $3 strike stands out as the most actively traded contract.
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A call option gives the buyer the right to purchase an asset at a predetermined price by a specific date. In this case, investors buying $3 strike calls are betting that XRP’s spot price will exceed $3 by July 25. On Deribit, each contract represents one XRP, making it a direct leveraged play on price movement.
Recent data shows that the surge in volume for the $3 calls is primarily driven by buy-side activity. Over the past 24 hours, 2 million contracts changed hands through investor purchases, with market makers taking the opposite side. In contrast, the $2.80 strike has seen more selling pressure, indicating that traders are less confident about near-term gains at that level — or are actively hedging positions.
Notably, the $3 call has also seen the largest increase in open interest over the past seven days. Open interest reflects the total number of active contracts, and rising open interest in higher strike calls signals growing conviction that XRP is poised for a substantial rally.
Why Traders Are Betting on $3 and Beyond
Several macro and regulatory factors are fueling this optimism:
- Spot ETF Expectations: According to Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, the likelihood of a spot XRP ETF being approved by the U.S. SEC has climbed to 95%. This near-certainty has ignited investor confidence, as a spot ETF would bring institutional capital, improved liquidity, and broader market access.
- Ripple’s Banking License Application: Ripple, the company behind XRP’s ecosystem, recently filed for a national banking license with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). If approved, it would place Ripple under both federal and state (NYDFS) oversight — a rare level of regulatory compliance in the crypto space.
Brad Garlinghouse, Ripple’s CEO, emphasized the significance on social media: “If approved, we would have both state and federal oversight, a new (and unique!) benchmark for trust in the stablecoin market.” While XRP itself isn’t a stablecoin, this move reinforces Ripple’s commitment to regulatory legitimacy — a strong signal for long-term investors.
These developments are reshaping market psychology. What was once seen as regulatory uncertainty is now being priced as resolution and opportunity.
XRP/BTC Breakout: The Bullish Wedge Confirmed
Beyond fiat-denominated price action, the XRP/BTC trading pair on Binance has delivered a powerful technical signal: a confirmed breakout from a falling wedge pattern.
A falling wedge is widely recognized as a bullish reversal formation. It forms when price movements narrow between two downward-sloping, converging trendlines. This contraction reflects diminishing selling pressure — a sign that bears are losing control.
When price breaks above the upper trendline with volume, it confirms a reversal and suggests that bulls have regained dominance. In XRP/BTC’s case, this breakout has already occurred.
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This breakout implies that:
- The corrective phase from April’s highs has concluded.
- The primary uptrend for XRP is resuming.
- The path of least resistance is now upward.
While some may point to conflicting signals from moving averages — with the 50-day and 100-day SMAs trending downward and recently crossing below the 200-day SMA — it’s important to remember that moving averages are lagging indicators. They reflect past price behavior and often fail to capture turning points in real time. In contrast, chart patterns like wedges provide forward-looking insights based on supply and demand dynamics.
Thus, the wedge breakout carries more immediate weight than bearish moving average crossovers.
Core Keywords Driving Market Sentiment
To align with search intent and enhance SEO performance, here are the core keywords naturally integrated throughout this analysis:
- XRP price prediction
- XRP/BTC technical analysis
- XRP options trading
- Ripple banking license
- XRP ETF probability
- XRP $3 target
- falling wedge breakout
- Deribit options volume
These terms reflect what active traders and investors are searching for: clarity on price direction, catalysts for movement, and actionable technical insights.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does a falling wedge breakout mean for XRP?
A: A falling wedge breakout is a bullish reversal pattern indicating that selling pressure has weakened and buyers are regaining control. For XRP/BTC, this suggests that the correction is over and a new upward move may be beginning.
Q: Why are traders buying $3 call options on XRP?
A: Traders are positioning for a significant price surge, fueled by rising confidence in a spot ETF approval and Ripple’s regulatory progress. The $3 strike represents a bold but increasingly plausible target given current momentum.
Q: How does Ripple’s banking license application affect XRP?
A: While Ripple’s actions don’t directly control XRP’s price, they enhance credibility and regulatory clarity. A national banking license would place Ripple under federal oversight, reducing legal uncertainty — a major positive for investor sentiment.
Q: Is Deribit options volume a reliable indicator?
A: Yes, especially when combined with open interest and trade direction. High buy volume in out-of-the-money calls (like $3 strikes) shows strong bullish conviction among sophisticated traders.
Q: What happens if XRP fails to reach $3 by July 25?
A: The options expire worthless for buyers, but this doesn’t negate broader bullish trends. Market expectations are dynamic — even if $3 isn’t hit by July, later expiries (like September) still show strong interest.
Q: Can technical analysis predict XRP’s next move?
A: While not foolproof, patterns like the falling wedge have strong historical reliability when confirmed with volume. Combined with fundamental catalysts, technicals offer valuable insight into likely price trajectories.
Final Outlook: Momentum Builds Toward $3
XRP is at an inflection point. Regulatory headwinds appear to be shifting into tailwinds, options traders are placing high-conviction bets on a rally to $3 or beyond, and technical indicators confirm renewed bullish momentum — especially in Bitcoin terms.
While short-term volatility is inevitable in any crypto market, the convergence of fundamental progress and technical strength paints an optimistic picture for XRP’s trajectory in the coming weeks.
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Investors should monitor key levels:
- Immediate resistance: $2.80–$2.90
- Breakout target: $3.00
- Long-term upside potential: $4.00+ (as priced by September options)
With ETF speculation nearing certainty and Ripple solidifying its regulatory standing, XRP may finally be shedding its years-long legal overhang — setting the stage for one of its most significant rallies yet.