The SUI price has reclaimed the $3 mark, trading at $3.04 as of early July, following a 9% gain over the past 24 hours. This momentum is more than just a minor rebound—it’s backed by a compelling technical formation and surging market interest. A cup and handle pattern has emerged on the weekly chart, a bullish signal historically associated with strong upward breakouts. With trading volume spiking 164% to $1.53 billion and open interest rising, the stage may be set for SUI to potentially double in value and reach $6.
The Bullish Case: Cup and Handle Pattern Signals Strong Momentum
Technical analysis plays a pivotal role in understanding SUI’s current trajectory. The cup and handle pattern forming on the 1-week chart suggests that accumulation is complete and bullish momentum is building. This pattern consists of a rounded bottom (the cup) followed by a smaller pullback (the handle), typically indicating consolidation before a breakout.
For the pattern to confirm, SUI must close strongly above the upper resistance of the handle. Currently, this week’s candle has moved above that trendline—an encouraging sign. If sustained, it could validate a breakout with a projected price target based on the depth of the cup.
Given that the lowest point of the cup was near $1.50, a full breakout could propel SUI toward **$6**, representing a 100% increase from its current level. This aligns with historical precedents where similar patterns preceded explosive moves in high-potential altcoins.
Supporting Indicators Strengthen the Bullish Outlook
Beyond chart patterns, key technical indicators are reinforcing positive sentiment:
- Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed above 50, signaling a shift from bearish to bullish momentum.
- Average Directional Index (ADX) is declining, suggesting the current downtrend within the handle lacks strength and may soon reverse.
- Rising trading volume confirms growing participation, reducing the likelihood of a false breakout.
Together, these metrics suggest that selling pressure is waning and buyers are stepping in with conviction.
Rising Open Interest and Derivatives Activity
Market depth is another critical factor driving confidence in SUI’s potential rally. According to CoinGlass data, open interest in SUI derivatives has surged by 16% in just 24 hours, reaching $1.39 billion. This increase indicates growing institutional and retail participation in leveraged positions.
Crucially, most of this interest is coming from traders holding long positions:
- The funding rate remains positive, showing demand for long contracts.
- The long/short ratio stands at 1.01, indicating slightly more buyers than sellers—a healthy balance that avoids extreme over-leverage.
When open interest rises alongside price, it typically confirms the strength of a trend. In contrast, rising open interest during a price drop can signal impending capitulation. Here, both metrics are moving in sync, supporting a continuation of the upward move.
On-Chain Activity Reflects Growing Network Strength
Beneath the price action lies strong fundamental support. Data from DeFiLlama shows that SUI’s Total Value Locked (TVL) has reached $1.842 billion—the highest level in three weeks. This resurgence reflects renewed confidence in SUI-based decentralized applications and staking opportunities.
A growing TVL suggests:
- Increased user adoption
- More liquidity in DeFi protocols
- Stronger ecosystem fundamentals
These factors contribute to long-term price sustainability and reduce reliance solely on speculative trading.
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Key Risks to Watch
Despite the optimistic outlook, several risks could disrupt the bullish scenario:
Token Unlocks Could Trigger Short-Term Volatility
A scheduled unlock of 123 million SUI tokens looms as a potential overhang. Large token releases often lead to short-term sell pressure, especially if early investors or team members offload holdings. However, if the market absorbs the supply without a significant drop, it could be interpreted as a sign of strength.
Pattern Failure Below Support
If SUI fails to hold above the handle’s lower boundary, the cup and handle pattern would be invalidated. A breakdown below this level could trigger further downside, possibly retesting previous support near $2.50 or lower.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What is causing SUI’s recent price increase?
SUI’s price rise is driven by a combination of broader market recovery, technical pattern formation (cup and handle), rising trading volume, and increased open interest in futures markets.
Could SUI really reach $6?
Yes—based on the cup and handle pattern’s measured move, a rally to $6 is technically plausible if SUI confirms a strong breakout above the handle resistance with sustained volume.
What does the cup and handle pattern mean for SUI?
It suggests a period of consolidation is ending and a significant upward move may follow. Historically, this pattern precedes rallies equal to the depth of the cup when confirmed.
How important is open interest for SUI’s price direction?
Very important. Rising open interest during a price uptrend signals new money entering the market, which increases the likelihood of trend continuation.
Is network activity supporting SUI’s price growth?
Yes. Total Value Locked (TVL) has climbed to $1.842 billion—the highest in three weeks—indicating growing use of SUI’s DeFi ecosystem and stronger fundamentals.
What risks could prevent SUI from reaching $6?
Major risks include large token unlocks creating sell pressure and failure to close above the handle resistance, which would invalidate the bullish pattern.
With strong technicals, growing derivatives interest, and improving on-chain fundamentals, SUI appears poised for a potential breakout. While caution is warranted around token unlocks and pattern confirmation, the path to $6 is now clearly mapped out—if momentum holds.
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