The crypto market remains in a state of cautious equilibrium as macroeconomic signals and sector-specific momentum shape investor sentiment. With Bitcoin hovering around key technical levels and institutional expectations shifting, this week’s report dives into the evolving landscape—covering macro drivers, infrastructure-led sector rallies, and high-potential projects capturing attention.
📊 Market Overview: Sentiment & Technical Outlook
Market Sentiment Index: 65 (unchanged from last week)
Fear & Greed Index: 25 – indicating extreme fear, the lowest level in a year.
Despite BTC’s modest rebound, broader sentiment remains fragile. However, macro fundamentals are improving: U.S. CPI cooled to 3%, below expectations, reinforcing market bets on a September rate cut. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments boosted confidence, with over 70% probability priced in for a September rate cut and two cuts expected by year-end.
👉 Discover how rate cut expectations are reshaping crypto liquidity
BTC Price Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
Bitcoin is currently trading near $57,700**, bouncing between **$54,200 (weekly low) and $59,500 (Thursday high)**. The **$58,000 mark has become a pivotal resistance-support flip zone. Holding above it could signal bullish momentum, while failure may trigger further downside.
- Critical support at $56,000, where a cluster of long liquidations resides.
- Leverage concentration above $57,000 suggests any rally may face short-term pressure.
- Options data shows strong bullish positioning for Q3–Q4 2025, with far-out call volumes rising—indicating long-term confidence.
The rainbow chart now signals a “buy zone,” echoing historical accumulation phases seen in prior cycles.
Weekly Technical Outlook
- Weekly chart: No clear reversal pattern yet; momentum remains subdued.
- Daily chart: Consolidation continues—no decisive breakout.
- Short-term bias: Neutral to slightly cautious. A sustained hold above $56,000 for three days could justify long entries. Immediate upside above $59,500 may prompt观望 (observation), not commitment.
🌐 Macro Drivers: Liquidity, Rates & Capital Flow
1. Rate Cut Expectations Fuel Optimism
The crypto rally in mid-July is largely tied to declining inflation and cooling labor data. With tighter monetary policy potentially ending, capital could flow back into risk assets.
- A Fed rate cut would likely increase USD liquidity.
- USDT issuance is expected to accelerate post-rate cuts—historically a strong catalyst for broad-market rallies.
- ETF inflows remain modest ($880M net over past five days), but anticipation is building.
2. Stock Market Divergence
While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulled back sharply after CPI data, small-cap equities rallied—notably the Russell 2000 Growth Index (IWO). This suggests capital rotation from mega-caps to speculative assets.
However, caution is warranted: many micro-cap rallies lack fundamental backing and are driven purely by speculation. Retail investors chasing momentum risk entering late—timing remains difficult.
🔍 Sector Spotlight: Infrastructure Takes the Lead
This week’s strongest performers were infrastructure-oriented blockchain sectors, signaling a shift from meme-driven speculation to tech-focused narratives.
Top Performing Sectors (7-Day Gains)
- Modular Blockchains (+18%)
- Bitcoin Layer 2s (+14%)
- EVM Parallel Chains (+12%)
- Data Availability (DA) Layers (+13%)
- Application-Specific Chains (+11%)
These sectors share a common theme: scalability and foundational upgrades. As markets mature, investor focus is returning to projects solving real technical bottlenecks.
Why Infrastructure Now?
After months of AI and meme coin dominance, capital is rotating into projects with long-term utility. While some price action may be influenced by market-making (e.g., conference-driven hype), the underlying trend reflects growing confidence in blockchain scalability solutions.
👉 Explore how modular blockchains are redefining scalability
🔧 Deep Dive: Modular Blockchain Sector
Market Snapshot
- Total Market Cap: $2.25B
- 24h Volume: $259M
- Leader: Celestia (TIA) – Market cap: $1.29B | FDV: $6.92B
Celestia dominates the modular blockchain space with a 57% market share, far ahead of competitors like Dymension (DYM) and SKALE (SKL).
What Is Modular Blockchain?
Traditional blockchains bundle execution, consensus, data availability (DA), and settlement. Modular blockchains decouple these layers, allowing specialized chains to optimize performance.
- Execution Layer: Processes transactions.
- Consensus Layer: Validates block ordering.
- Data Availability (DA) Layer: Ensures transaction data is accessible.
- Settlement Layer: Finalizes cross-chain transactions.
Celestia focuses on the DA layer, enabling rollups and app-chains to publish data securely and cheaply.
TIA Price Surge: Fundamentals or Hype?
TIA surged over 67% in early July, peaking at $6.50 before retracing. Notably:
- No major protocol upgrades announced.
- Rally coincided with the Modular Summit, boosting visibility.
- Likely driven by coordinated marketing and speculative positioning.
While short-term price action appears hype-driven, Celestia’s technical foundation remains strong—making it a strategic long-term holding for infrastructure bulls.
🚀 Featured Projects in Focus
1. Unisat – Reviving Bitcoin’s Ordinals Ecosystem
Unisat Wallet is a leading tool for managing Bitcoin Ordinals and BRC-20 tokens.
Recent Developments:
- Completed Pre-A funding round, led by Binance (amount undisclosed).
- Announced Fractal Swap, a Bitcoin-native DEX with rollup-like fee incentives.
- Introduced Sats as gas tokens in swap transactions—adding utility to satoshis.
Despite a 95% drop in daily transactions from Q1 highs, the new swap feature sparked an 18% short-term rally in Sats price. While the broader Ordinals market remains sluggish, Unisat’s technical innovations could reignite interest by Q4.
2. DOGS – The Telegram Meme Coin Phenomenon
DOGS launched on TON (The Open Network) with a massive airdrop across Telegram users.
Key Features:
- Inspired by Telegram founder Pavel Durov’s dog, Spotty.
- Airdropped to over 3 million users based on account age and activity.
- Redeemable 1:1 for Telegram Stars (purchasable with fiat).
With an estimated supply near 1 trillion tokens, DOGS resembles an IEO disguised as a fair drop. Concerns include:
- No clear utility or roadmap.
- Extremely diluted token distribution.
- Risk of poor post-listing price stability.
Despite skepticism, DOGS brought renewed attention to TON’s ecosystem—a potential catalyst for future Telegram-integrated dApps.
3. SEND IT – Solana’s Blink-Powered NFT
SEND IT is a 100,000-piece NFT collection leveraging Solana’s new Blink technology.
Why It’s Gaining Traction:
- Users can mint directly from Twitter via embedded buttons.
- Backed by Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko (Toly), who pinned a related use-case thread.
- Offers NFT holders a chance to win 6.9 SOL and future airdrops.
The floor price jumped from 0.1 SOL to 0.63 SOL in two days, with strong trading volume. As Blink adoption grows, SEND IT could become a flagship example of social-layer onboarding.
💸 On-Chain & Stablecoin Metrics
Stablecoin Supply Growth
Total USDC + USDT supply: $146.27 billion
Weekly increase: +$7.14 billion
Despite sideways price action, stablecoin supply growth indicates quiet capital accumulation—a bullish sign for mid-term sentiment.
ETF Flows & Premiums
- U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw $880M net inflow last week.
- However, ETF demand hasn’t yet translated into price strength—suggesting macro forces still dominate.
OTC Premiums
OKX data shows stablecoins briefly entered premium post-CPI release but have since reverted to neutral—reflecting balanced buying/selling pressure.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?
A: With BTC near rainbow chart “buy” levels and rate cuts likely in Q3 2025, current prices offer a favorable risk-reward for long-term holders—especially above $56,000 support.
Q: Why are infrastructure projects outperforming?
A: After speculative cycles in AI and memes, investors are rotating into foundational tech with real use cases. Scalability solutions like modular blockchains are preparing for mass adoption.
Q: Should I trust meme coins like DOGS?
A: Treat them as high-risk speculation. While DOGS benefits from Telegram’s massive user base, lack of utility and centralized distribution make it volatile post-launch.
Q: What does the Fear & Greed Index at 25 mean?
A: It signals extreme fear—often a contrarian buy signal in bull markets. Historically, such lows precede strong rebounds when macro conditions improve.
Q: How will rate cuts affect crypto?
A: Lower rates increase liquidity and reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like BTC—typically leading to broader market rallies and increased stablecoin minting.
Q: Is TIA’s rally sustainable?
A: Short-term gains may cool post-conference, but Celestia’s role in modular architecture gives it long-term value. Watch for developer activity and new rollup deployments.
🔚 Final Thoughts & Outlook
The market is at an inflection point. While short-term direction remains unclear, macro tailwinds are aligning: cooling inflation, rising rate cut odds, and quiet stablecoin accumulation suggest a bottom may be forming.
Infrastructure narratives—especially modular blockchains—are gaining traction as investors seek substance over hype. Projects like Celestia, Unisat, and SEND IT represent different facets of innovation across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ecosystems.
👉 Stay ahead of the next market surge with real-time data and insights
As we approach Q3 2025, patience and selectivity will be key. This phase of consolidation often precedes the strongest leg of a bull run—positioning now could yield significant rewards later.