The XRP price has stabilized above $2.05 following a modest rebound on April 1, with bullish divergence signals emerging on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggesting the recent dip could mark a short-term bottom. After declining 22% from March 19 to March 31 — bottoming near $2.02 — XRP climbed 9% to $2.20 before pulling back to current levels.
But is this recovery sustainable? Or could deeper corrections still lie ahead?
Bullish Divergence Across Multiple Timeframes
Market analyst CasiTrades has identified promising technical patterns across multiple timeframes, pointing to potential momentum reversal in XRP’s favor. According to her analysis, the RSI is displaying clear bullish divergence — a scenario where price makes lower lows, but the momentum oscillator forms higher lows.
This decoupling between price and momentum often precedes upward reversals, indicating weakening selling pressure.
“After touching the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at $2.05, XRP shows bullish divergence from the 15-minute up to the 4-hour chart,” CasiTrades noted in a post on X (formerly Twitter) on March 31.
She emphasized that these early signs suggest a possible short-term bottom formation and align with broader macro indicators hinting at improving market sentiment.
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Key Resistance Levels to Watch
One critical level remains in focus: $2.25. A strong breakout above this zone would confirm bullish momentum and potentially eliminate the need for a retest of support.
“If we break $2.25 with strong momentum, it means we won’t have to retest support — that’s a very bullish signal,” CasiTrades explained.
Should the $2.05 support fail, additional demand is expected between $2.00 and $2.01, providing a secondary cushion. Her outlook for April is optimistic, with initial targets set at **$2.70, followed by a more ambitious $3.80** target.
“Once we reach these levels, I expect a significant move higher. Key resistance zones are at $2.70 and $3.80.”
These projections align with wave-based interpretations of XRP’s structure, reinforcing expectations of a renewed upward impulse if key technical thresholds are cleared.
Is the Bottom Confirmed? Not So Fast
Despite encouraging signs, veteran trader Peter Brandt warns of lingering risks. He has highlighted a developing head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern on the daily chart — a classic bearish reversal formation.
For this pattern to confirm, XRP must close below the neckline at $1.90**. If that occurs, the projected downside target reaches **$1.07, based on the measured move from the pattern’s peak.
“Below $1.90, I wouldn’t hold. The H&S target is $1.07. This is just objective technical analysis,” Brandt stated.
While the pattern remains unconfirmed, its presence underscores vulnerability in the current setup. A sustained break below $1.90 could accelerate selling pressure, potentially dragging XRP toward $1.50 before testing the full downside target.
However, the bearish thesis isn’t set in stone. Should buyers push and sustain prices above $3.00, the H&S formation would likely become invalid, opening the door for renewed upside momentum.
Macro Risks: U.S. Tariff Policy Adds Pressure
On April 2, fresh macroeconomic concerns emerged as new U.S. tariff policies introduced uncertainty into financial markets. Such geopolitical shifts often weigh on risk assets like cryptocurrencies, increasing volatility and dampening investor appetite.
Some analysts suggest these headwinds could drive XRP down to $1.31 in the near term, especially if broader market sentiment sours.
Yet not all voices echo caution.
A Bullish Counter-Narrative Emerges
Analyst Dark Defender offers a contrasting view, arguing that XRP may be preparing for a powerful rebound after retesting key Fibonacci support near **$2.04** — a level closely aligned with the prior low at $2.02.
He stresses that surpassing $2.22 is essential to validate continuation of the uptrend and set the stage for a larger fifth wave rally.
“April to May will be extremely active. Our projected fifth wave target range is between $5 and $8.”
This ambitious forecast follows Elliott Wave theory, which suggests markets move in predictable cycles of five upward waves followed by three corrective ones. If Dark Defender’s interpretation holds, the current phase could represent the foundation of a major breakout move.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is XRP likely to rebound in April 2025?
Yes, multiple technical indicators — including bullish RSI divergence and Fibonacci support alignment — suggest a rebound is possible in April 2025, provided key resistance levels like $2.25 are breached with volume.
What is the significance of bullish divergence in XRP’s chart?
Bullish divergence occurs when price makes lower lows but momentum (via RSI) forms higher lows. This indicates weakening bearish pressure and often precedes reversals — a signal currently visible across 15-minute to 4-hour charts.
Could XRP drop below $1.90? What happens then?
If XRP closes below $1.90 on the daily chart, it confirms a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, potentially triggering a drop toward $1.50 and eventually $1.07 unless strong buying emerges.
What is the next major resistance level for XRP?
The immediate resistance lies at $2.25**, with stronger barriers at **$2.70 and **$3.80**. Breaking above $2.25 with strong momentum could accelerate gains toward higher targets.
Can XRP reach $8 in 2025?
While aggressive, some analysts using Elliott Wave principles project a fifth-wave rally targeting $5 to $8 between April and May 2025 — contingent on sustained bullish momentum and macroeconomic stability.
How do Fibonacci levels influence XRP’s price action?
Fibonacci retracement levels such as 0.786 (near $2.05) act as high-probability reversal zones. Traders watch these levels for confluence with other signals like RSI divergence or volume spikes.
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Final Outlook: A Crossroads of Possibilities
XRP stands at a technical crossroads in early April 2025. On one side: encouraging signs of bottoming behavior, supported by momentum shifts and strategic support zones. On the other: persistent bearish patterns and external macro risks that could extend downside pressure.
Traders should monitor:
- Daily closes relative to $1.90 (H&S confirmation)
- Breakouts above $2.25 (bullish momentum)
- RSI behavior across multiple timeframes
- Volume-backed moves through key Fibonacci levels
With conflicting narratives from top analysts, flexibility and risk management remain crucial. Whether targeting $3.80 or preparing for a deeper dip to $1.07, positioning should reflect both technical evidence and evolving market conditions.
The coming weeks may determine whether XRP resumes its ascent or enters a prolonged correction — making this a pivotal moment for holders and traders alike.