Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a correction phase, trading slightly lower near $92,000 on Monday after a robust 9.5% rally over the weekend. While the rebound offered temporary relief to market participants, underlying sentiment remains cautious. Institutional demand signals are weakening, with U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs reporting a net outflow of $2.39 billion last week—marking the second consecutive week of withdrawals and raising concerns about sustained investor confidence.
Despite the short-term volatility, macro-level developments are shaping market expectations. A recent announcement by former U.S. President Donald Trump about a proposed "Crypto Strategic Reserve" has sparked renewed interest in digital assets. Meanwhile, technical indicators suggest Bitcoin is at a pivotal juncture, with key resistance and support levels likely to determine the next major move.
Trump’s Crypto Strategic Reserve Announcement Sparks Market Reaction
The weekend surge in Bitcoin’s price was largely fueled by news that Donald Trump announced plans for a U.S. “Crypto Strategic Reserve” via his Truth Social platform. The proposed reserve would include major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA)—a move aimed at reinforcing America’s leadership in the global crypto economy.
Tracy Jin, COO of MEXC, commented on the significance of the announcement:
“President Trump's proposal comes at a crucial time for the industry, especially amid recent declines in market sentiment. Historically, strategic reserves have driven demand for commodities like oil and gold. Institutional interest in gold, for instance, led to a 26% price increase in 2024. A similar dynamic could unfold in crypto if foundational projects with real-world utility are backed at the national level.”
The inclusion of altcoins like SOL and ADA suggests a broader vision beyond just Bitcoin and Ethereum, potentially signaling government recognition of blockchain innovation across multiple ecosystems. If implemented, such a reserve could enhance market resilience, accelerate institutional adoption, and encourage clearer regulatory frameworks.
👉 Discover how macro-level policy shifts could impact your crypto portfolio.
Market Sentiment Remains Cautious Despite Weekend Rally
While the rally lifted prices from Friday’s low of $78,258 to over $94,270 by Sunday, momentum has stalled early this week. According to QCP Capital’s latest market analysis, risk assets showed encouraging recovery on Sunday—but Bitcoin is “not quite in the game yet.”
BTC continues to trade near the lower end of its multi-month range. Frontend crypto volatility remains elevated, with options markets still reflecting a Put Skew extending into March—indicating that traders are hedging against downside risk. The broader VIX index is also elevated, reflecting unease across financial markets following recent U.S. tariff escalations.
QCP analysts note:
“With key macroeconomic data releases scheduled this week and the upcoming White House Crypto Summit on Friday, we expect volatility to remain firm. The summit may reveal critical details about the proposed Crypto Strategic Reserve and future regulatory direction.”
These events could serve as catalysts for renewed momentum—or further downside—if expectations aren’t met.
Institutional Demand Weakens Amid ETF Outflows
One of the most pressing concerns for Bitcoin’s price trajectory is weakening institutional demand. Data from Coinglass reveals that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced **$2.39 billion in net outflows** last week—extending the prior week’s $540 million withdrawal trend.
This sustained outflow suggests that large investors may be taking profits or reallocating capital amid uncertainty. If outflows continue or intensify, they could pressure Bitcoin’s price and delay a sustainable bullish breakout.
Historically, prolonged ETF outflows have preceded extended consolidation phases. However, past cycles also show that such periods often create buying opportunities ahead of the next leg up—especially when coinciding with halving events or macroeconomic shifts.
👉 Learn how institutional flows influence Bitcoin’s long-term price trends.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: At a Technical Crossroads
Bitcoin’s price action last week followed a volatile pattern—declining from a high of $96,500 to a low of $78,258 before recovering over 11.5% during the weekend. As of Monday, it trades around $92,000, facing resistance near $96,000 and strong support at $85,000.
Bullish Scenario
If BTC sustains momentum above $92,000 and breaks past $96,500, it could retest the psychologically significant $100,000 resistance level. A confirmed close above this threshold could trigger a wave of algorithmic and retail buying.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart currently sits at 47—up from oversold levels but still below the neutral 50 mark. A move above 50 would confirm strengthening bullish momentum and increase the likelihood of higher highs.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, if Bitcoin fails to hold above $90,000 and closes below this level, it may retest the **$85,000 daily support**—a key floor observed multiple times in recent months. A breakdown below $85,000 could open the door to deeper corrections toward $78,000 or lower.
Traders are advised to monitor volume patterns and on-chain metrics closely in the coming days, as shifts in whale activity or exchange reserves could signal the next directional move.
👉 Analyze real-time price action and technical indicators to stay ahead of market shifts.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What is causing Bitcoin’s current price correction?
Bitcoin is correcting after a sharp rebound due to lingering weak investor sentiment, ongoing ETF outflows, and elevated market volatility. Despite positive headlines like the proposed Crypto Strategic Reserve, institutional demand remains subdued.
Could the Crypto Strategic Reserve boost Bitcoin’s price?
Yes—similar to how strategic reserves boosted gold and oil demand historically, a national crypto reserve could increase institutional adoption, improve market stability, and drive long-term price appreciation—especially if major blockchains are included.
Why are ETF outflows concerning for Bitcoin?
Persistent outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs indicate weakening institutional confidence. When large investors pull capital, it reduces buying pressure and can lead to extended consolidation or bearish trends.
What does Put Skew mean for Bitcoin options?
Put Skew means traders are buying more put options than calls—typically a sign of bearish hedging. It reflects caution and expectations of potential downside risk in the near term.
Is $100,000 still achievable for Bitcoin this cycle?
Yes—many analysts believe $100,000 remains within reach if macro conditions improve, ETF flows reverse positively, and regulatory clarity increases. Key catalysts like halving effects and institutional adoption could drive this move.
How important is the RSI level of 50 for Bitcoin?
The RSI crossing above 50 signals a shift from neutral/bearish to bullish momentum. For sustained rallies, Bitcoin typically needs to maintain RSI above 50 on daily charts.
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