The native cryptocurrency of the Ripple network, XRP, is facing intensified downward pressure as technical indicators and derivatives data point toward a potential breakdown below the critical $2.00** level. Trading near **$2.13 at press time, XRP has shed over 3% in recent sessions, reflecting growing uncertainty among market participants.
With weakening open interest, rising long liquidations, and deteriorating technical structure, traders are increasingly cautious about the short-term outlook. While Ripple continues advancing its real-world utility and regulatory positioning, near-term price action suggests that bearish momentum may dominate unless strong catalysts emerge.
Derivatives Data Reveals Declining Market Confidence
Recent data from CoinGlass shows a concerning trend in XRP’s derivatives market. Over the past 24 hours, XRP futures open interest (OI) declined by nearly 3%, settling at $3.91 billion**. Simultaneously, trading volume dropped by **14%** to **$3.53 billion.
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This dual decline in open interest and volume indicates that traders are pulling back from speculative positions. When both metrics fall together during a price drop, it often signals a loss of bullish conviction and a lack of new buyers stepping in to support the market.
“The falling open interest and trading volume indicate that traders are stepping back, which weakens the momentum and increases the chance of further price declines,” noted a market analyst monitoring XRP activity.
In healthy bull markets, rising prices are typically accompanied by increasing open interest—showing new money entering the market. Conversely, declining OI during a downtrend suggests position unwinding, often preceding deeper corrections.
Long Liquidations Surge Amid Price Breakdown
As XRP dipped below key moving averages, long-position holders faced mounting losses. Over the past 24 hours, more than $4.45 million** in long positions were liquidated, compared to just **$294,000 in short positions closed.
This lopsided liquidation ratio highlights the dominance of bearish sentiment. With the long-to-short ratio now at 0.9275, shorts outnumber longs—a rare shift that underscores weakening confidence in upward momentum.
Technically, XRP has broken below several critical support levels:
- 50-period EMA: $2.22
- 100-period EMA: $2.25
- 200-period EMA: $2.27 (on the 4-hour chart)
These moving averages previously acted as dynamic support during uptrends. Their breach suggests a structural shift from bullish to bearish control.
Additionally, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator has confirmed a bearish crossover. The blue MACD line has slipped below the red signal line, while the histogram bars continue expanding into negative territory—indicating accelerating selling pressure.
Key Resistance Zones Hinder Recovery Attempts
XRP’s path to recovery faces stiff resistance between $2.265 and $2.270, a zone it has repeatedly failed to reclaim. Each attempted rally has been met with strong selling volume, reinforcing this level as a psychological and technical barrier.
With volume indicators trending negative and price action confined below major EMAs, bulls lack the momentum needed to mount a sustained reversal. Without a significant influx of buying pressure, any short-term bounce may be short-lived.
“With XRP hovering below crucial moving averages and volume indicators turning negative, bulls will struggle to reclaim momentum unless there’s a strong catalyst,” said a trader from a leading cryptocurrency exchange.
Meanwhile, broader crypto market weakness adds to the headwinds. Over the past week, XRP has declined by 9.11%, and its market capitalization has dropped by approximately $6 billion—a sign of eroding investor confidence amid uncertain macro and regulatory conditions.
Ripple’s Fundamental Progress Continues Despite Price Downturn
While technical indicators paint a bearish picture, Ripple continues strengthening its fundamental foundation through strategic initiatives aimed at expanding real-world adoption.
Recent developments include:
- The launch of RLUSD, Ripple’s own U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin.
- The acquisition of Hidden Road, an institutional trading platform designed to enhance execution for large-scale crypto trades.
- Expansion of partnerships focused on cross-border payments, particularly in emerging markets.
Moreover, Ripple is actively collaborating with regulators in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on tokenized real estate projects—a move that could set a precedent for blockchain-based asset ownership and compliance frameworks.
In another significant development, China-based fintech firm Webus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to raise $300 million, part of which is reportedly intended to build an XRP strategic reserve. If realized, this could create long-term demand for XRP by anchoring it to institutional-grade financial infrastructure.
These moves reinforce Ripple’s vision of positioning XRP not just as a speculative asset but as a functional tool for global payments and asset tokenization.
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XRP vs. SEC Lawsuit: Regulatory Uncertainty Looms
Despite progress on the product front, regulatory uncertainty remains a major overhang for XRP investors. The ongoing lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC—centered on whether XRP qualifies as an unregistered security—continues to influence market sentiment.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has consistently maintained that XRP is not a security, emphasizing its decentralized nature and utility in cross-border transactions. However, a final ruling has yet to be issued, keeping institutional investors on the sidelines.
Legal experts suggest a potential breakthrough could occur by mid-June 2025, with some anticipating a resolution as early as June 13. A favorable outcome could unlock new exchange listings, ETF speculation, and renewed investor interest.
Conversely, an adverse ruling may trigger further selling pressure, especially if it restricts XRP’s availability in U.S. markets or imposes compliance burdens on exchanges.
Support Zone Watch: Can XRP Hold Above $2?
Currently, XRP is testing the $2.10–$2.15 range as a short-term support zone. A decisive break below this level could open the door to a retest of $2.00**, with extended downside targets near **$1.95 if selling intensifies.
Key factors that could influence the next major move:
- Renewed buying volume
- Positive resolution in the SEC case
- Institutional accumulation signals
- Broader crypto market recovery
Until one or more of these catalysts emerge, the path of least resistance appears downward.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Could XRP drop below $2?
A: Yes—current technical indicators, declining open interest, and strong resistance near $2.27 suggest that a drop below $2 is increasingly possible if support at $2.10 fails.
Q: What is causing XRP’s price decline?
A: A combination of weakening derivatives activity, long liquidations, loss of key moving average support, and ongoing regulatory uncertainty with the SEC are contributing to bearish momentum.
Q: Is Ripple still making progress despite low prices?
A: Absolutely. Ripple has launched RLUSD, acquired Hidden Road, and expanded global partnerships—all part of its strategy to drive real-world utility for XRP beyond trading speculation.
Q: When will the XRP vs. SEC case be resolved?
A: While no official date is confirmed, legal analysts expect a potential resolution by mid-June 2025, possibly as early as June 13.
Q: What should traders watch for a reversal signal?
A: Look for sustained volume-backed moves above $2.27 (the 200 EMA), declining liquidations, rising open interest on upswings, and positive regulatory news.
Q: Can XRP recover if it breaks $2?
A: Historically, psychological levels like $2 can trigger panic selling—but they can also attract contrarian buyers. Recovery would depend on broader market conditions and catalysts like SEC clarity or institutional inflows.
Final Outlook: Caution Prevails Amid Volatility
XRP’s short-term trajectory remains bearish as technical breakdowns align with weakening derivatives sentiment and regulatory ambiguity. The risk of dipping below $2.00 is growing, especially if current support levels fail to hold.
However, Ripple’s ongoing efforts to expand XRP’s utility in cross-border payments, stablecoins, and regulated finance suggest long-term value potential beyond speculative cycles.
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For traders and investors, patience is key. Monitoring both technical thresholds and regulatory developments will be essential in navigating the next phase of XRP’s journey. Until bullish momentum returns with conviction, caution—and careful risk management—should remain top priorities.