In a bold new forecast, investment firm Bernstein predicts that MicroStrategy—now rebranded as Strategy—could hold over 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) by 2033, representing approximately 5.8% of the total circulating supply. This bullish projection hinges on continued aggressive acquisition strategies, favorable market conditions, and Bitcoin reaching a staggering $1 million per coin.
The analysis, led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, revises earlier estimates in light of Strategy’s Q4 financial performance and its relentless pace of Bitcoin accumulation. As of March 25, the company held 506,137 BTC, acquired at an average price of $66,608**, amounting to a total value of **$33.7 billion. This latest update reflects not just confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value but also in Strategy’s ability to scale its treasury model through debt and equity financing.
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A Bullish Vision for Bitcoin and Strategy
Bernstein’s “bull case” scenario outlines a future where Bitcoin hits $200,000 by the end of 2025**, **$500,000 by 2029, and ultimately $1 million by 2033**. Under this trajectory, Strategy would need to significantly expand its balance sheet. The firm estimates that the company could take on **$100 billion in debt and raise $84 billion in equity to support its growing BTC reserves.
At current projections, holding 1 million BTC would equate to about 5% of Bitcoin’s final supply cap of 21 million coins. Given that only around 19.8 million BTC are currently in circulation, Strategy’s existing holdings already represent roughly 2.5%—a figure expected to grow to 5.8% under optimal conditions.
This aggressive stacking strategy is not without risks. In a bear-case scenario, BTC accumulation could stagnate at around 2.6% of the circulating supply, potentially triggering forced liquidations if financing dries up or market sentiment sours.
Financial Mechanics Behind the Growth
Strategy has pioneered a unique corporate finance model centered on Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. Since October, it has raised more than $23 billion through various instruments, including:
- Sales of common stock (MSTR)
- Issuance of perpetual preferred shares (STRK, STRF)
Notably, the recent purchase of 6,911 additional BTC for $584.1 million was funded through these mechanisms. On March 25, the company launched its preferred stock ticker STRF on Nasdaq—a move analysts view as a strategic step toward diversifying funding sources while maintaining operational flexibility.
Bernstein assigns a 55% premium to Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings when valuing the stock, reflecting the perceived long-term upside of digital asset ownership. The firm maintains an “outperform” rating on Strategy with a $600 price target, implying roughly 75% upside from current levels.
As of the latest trading session, MSTR shares closed at $341.81, up 1.8%, recovering slightly from previous dips. Despite volatility in broader markets, Strategy remains one of the most influential players in institutional Bitcoin adoption.
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- Bitcoin price prediction
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Earnings and Valuation Outlook
Beyond its Bitcoin holdings, Bernstein forecasts significant growth in Strategy’s earnings profile. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from $67.50 to $207, driven by appreciation in BTC value and strategic capital allocation.
While critics have raised concerns about the premium valuation relative to net asset value (NAV) and the sustainability of rapid debt-fueled acquisitions, Bernstein argues that in a prolonged bull market with low interest rates, such a model can thrive.
The base case assumes BTC holdings will reach around 4% of circulating supply, still positioning Strategy as a dominant holder. However, success depends heavily on macroeconomic conditions—particularly interest rates and investor appetite for risk assets.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is Bernstein’s Bitcoin price forecast?
Bernstein projects Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025**, **$500,000 by 2029, and $1 million by 2033, based on increasing institutional adoption and macroeconomic tailwinds.
How much Bitcoin does MicroStrategy currently hold?
As of March 25, Strategy owns 506,137 BTC, purchased at an average price of $66,608**, with a total value exceeding **$33.7 billion.
How does Strategy finance its Bitcoin purchases?
The company raises capital through common stock sales (MSTR) and the issuance of perpetual preferred shares (STRK, STRF). It has generated over $23 billion since October using these instruments.
Could Strategy really hold 1 million Bitcoin?
Yes, under Bernstein’s bull case scenario—assuming continued favorable market conditions, access to low-cost capital, and sustained demand for BTC—Strategy could accumulate over 1 million coins by 2033.
Is holding Bitcoin a core business for Strategy?
Bernstein views Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury as a core business function, not just an investment. The firm evaluates the company based on the value and growth potential of its digital asset reserves.
What are the risks to this forecast?
Key risks include rising interest rates, reduced access to capital markets, regulatory scrutiny, and potential market downturns that could force asset liquidations or impair valuations.
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Final Thoughts
Strategy’s transformation from a business intelligence software provider to the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin underscores a seismic shift in how companies view monetary policy and asset preservation. With Bernstein’s bullish projections now factoring in over 1 million BTC holdings and a $1 million Bitcoin price target, the conversation has moved beyond speculation into strategic financial planning.
Whether or not these targets are met, one thing is clear: institutional demand for Bitcoin is no longer fringe—it's foundational. And firms like Strategy are leading the charge in redefining what it means to build long-term shareholder value in the digital age.
As markets evolve and adoption accelerates, investors would do well to monitor both on-chain data and corporate treasury decisions—because the future of finance may very well be written in code.